Trump’s Mamdani Math and the Mikie Sherrill Alternative
A tale of two elections: NYC and New Jersey.
Donald Trump casts a specter over local politics more than any other American president in recent memory. On Monday, Trump made that presence overt with an endorsement of former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the New York City’s mayor’s race.
Many took this endorsement at face value: One misogynistic scandal-prone bully endorsing another. Understandable, but I think this reading is a mistake. Trump sees a Zohran Mamdani victory as a political gift heading into next year’s midterms, and the president’s endorsement of Cuomo was, in turn, a boost to Mamdani.
Allow me to explain.
Cuomo was running as a Democrat until he lost his party’s primary in June. While beating Mamdani in the general election would mean courting right-wing voters, the ex-governor would also need some significant portion of centrists and liberals to back him too. For many among that latter segment, Trump’s support was a poison pill.
See this anecdote from left-wing Democratic activist David Hogg:
Trump knows his reputation in his hometown, and he knew the effect his intervention on Cuomo’s behalf could have.
So why did he do it? Why would Trump do something that helped Mamdani win?
The answer is that Mamdani is the perfect foil for Trump, who benefits from negative polarization. The president knows that most of the country does not think he is good. He wins because millions of Americans think that the other side is as bad or worse (One recent survey has the Democrats’ favorables just matching Trump’s abysmal 37%).
As I’ve written before, the historical record shows that in a tiebreaker between far-right and far-left, the far-right wins.
Zohran Mamdani takes those dynamics and turbocharges them. For all of his vaunted charisma, Mamdani will end up winning the race for City Hall with a bare majority (50.4%) against a fractured opposition consisting of two of the worst candidates you could have come up with, Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa.
Compare Mamdani’s narrow win to his Democratic predecessors’ wider spreads: Eric Adams won with 67% in 2021; Bill DeBlasio secured victories with 73% in 2013 and 67% in 2017.
Outside of New York, Mamdani is even less popular. Nationally, voters like the mayor-elect a lot less than they do several other top Democratic politicians, including Gavin Newsom, AOC, and Kamala Harris. He does rank higher than Chuck Schumer (sorry Chuck).
This is not the horse a winning party wants to bet on. And the Democrats do have other options (more on that in a moment).
Yet, some Democrats are hailing Mamdani as the new face of the party, and their MAGA opponents are enthusiastically agreeing. One Republican is reported to have quipped on Election Day that “The only win Republicans will have tonight is going to be Mamdani.”
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An anecdote to underscore the larger point: Disgraced former UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn was the guest of honor on a Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) phone bank for Mamdani just a few days ago (as they say, tell me who your friends are…).
Corbyn is a leftist and an antisemite. His Jew-hatred split Labour, and his extreme politics cratered the party’s credibility with the general public in Britain. Corbyn’s tenure ended with Labour experiencing its worst election results since the 1930s.
Trump wants Mamdani to do to the Democrats what Corbyn did to Labour. After all, why do the hard work of winning elections when your political opponents will tear themselves apart for you?
Trump and his circle probably think, not without reason, that every one vote for Mamdani in the North Brooklyn-Western Queens Commie Corridor activates ten Republican voters in the heartland.
Consider what happened across the Hudson River in New Jersey. Mainstream Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill, a congresswoman and former Navy pilot, stuck to her guns and refused to endorse Mamdani. She ended up taking the state house. Sherrill succeeded with a far more purple electorate than Mamdani did. She ended up with a 13-point margin of victory, winning bigger than Mamdani and outperforming expectations.
Labour ultimately gave Jeremy Corbyn the boot. With just twelve months to go before the midterms, will Democrats cut loose their own dead weight, or will they play directly into Trump’s hands?
Mikie Sherrill, Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger, and others in their mold have a far stronger case to be a standard-bearers for the Democrats than a far-left radical. The longer the party brass dithers on Mamdani, the more difficult the toxic DSA association will be to shake off. The Democrats have a compelling centrist alternative—embracing it now is the way out of the death spiral.
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More from The Next Move:
New Jersey's Next Governor and the Death of Leftism
Think this is a ridiculous headline? You’re right!
The Mamdani Effect
Principled liberals should not be afraid of a thirty-something political liability. A clean break from far-left fanaticism is a moral imperative and a strategic necessity.
Gary, Get a grip. You are vastly overestimating the brain power behind the Trump “strategist” fantasy. He honestly believes that if HIS NAME had been on the ballot, he would have won easily. His philosophy parallels Putin’s more than Reagan’s. It’s his basic philosophy. The last time America was in this situation, the solution was the “Great Depression” and WWII. Incrementalism isn’t going to solve anything in NYC.
Don’t prostitute yourself into another Trump apologist rationalizing your knee jerk reaction to Mamdani. Socialism doesn’t equal Communism. And you know that. Look at many Western nations, including Israel… there’s a lot of so-called “socialism” built into their system. Where’s your outrage there?
I lived in France when Mitterand was elected with the same accompanying hysteria. The affordability crisis is NYC has become existential for everyone but the wealthiest top percentages. The people who live there are entitled to deal with this problem without outsiders injecting their own battle scars leftover from the Cold War-Soviet Union landscape. The players are no longer clearly defined as to which side they are on. The world has changed. The chessboard is no longer so clearly defined. Stop looking backwards.
Respectfully disagree on Mamdani. It's a mistake to let your opponent characterize you. and Trump's go to phrases about radical left-wing terrorists is old and tired. Mamdani is personable and likeable and articulate. He's focused on affordability and that issue speaks to the reality of the American economy. No, I am not afraid of Mamdani being an impediment to the Democrat chances electorally. I think he's a net positive. Of course, I may be wrong. But just on personality alone (which is more important than details) Mamdani is an easy choice for anyone vs Trump.