New Jersey's Next Governor and the Death of Progressivism
Think this is a ridiculous headline? You’re right!
When State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani beat former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the New York Democratic mayoral primary, the elite media takes were hot, triumphal, and categorical.
“The Democratic Party is ripe for a takeover” cheered Vox.
“What centrist Democrats need to learn from Zohran Mamdani” The New Republic admonished.
“The death of centrism” trumpeted one New York Magazine headline.
Really? The death of centrism?
Step across the Hudson River and imagine a similar statement about Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, who recently secured the Democratic nomination for the governorship of New Jersey. Sherrill is a pragmatic representative of the center-left, endorsed by county-level party organizations, but willing to break with the establishment where it matters (she was one of the first Democrats on the Hill to call for Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 presidential race).
Where are the chattering classes declaring “the death of progressivism”? Why isn’t the Democratic Party “ripe for a takeover” from someone like Sherrill?
The notion that a primary win alone means that a far-left rebel like Mamdani can upend the Democrats on a national level makes for a cute narrative for elite media, which never misses an opportunity to run a “Dems in disarray” story. And this line is convenient for Donald Trump. The president and his allies are already tarring his opponents as socialists and radicals in the Queens assemblyman’s mold.
I remember similarly confident affirmations of far-left dominance when Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and the Squad made their debut in 2018. Then, as now, Trump was quick to make AOC interchangeable with the DNC in the eyes of his impressionable audience. While Ocasio Cortez’s national profile has grown, the Squad remains a small presence in DC. Far from becoming a bellwether, AOC has watched her mentor, Bernie Sanders, lose a second presidential nomination to more moderate Joe Biden.
As far as actionable political wisdom goes, there’s not much there.
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Yes: Democrats should take notes on Mamdani’s style. He ran an energetic campaign. On election day, he was out at a predawn press conference while Cuomo dithered around until about noon before finally making an appearance to cast his ballot. The other candidates were non-entities or even became surrogates for Mamdani. More than one reason not to treat the DSA candidate’s win as more than it actually is.
Many New Yorkers may have been energized by Mamdani’s far-left-wing platform. There is a strong case to be made that many more were also rejecting Cuomo. You could not have come up with a more unlikable stand-in for voter frustrations if you cooked one up in a lab.
The same sort of negative polarization was not at work next door in the Garden State.
Sherrill, in contrast to Mamdani, beat a number of serious challengers, both on the left and in the center. Unlike Cuomo, her rivals were not dogged by serious scandals that made them unpalatable to voters. Unlike Cuomo, Sherrill’s opponents actually ran campaigns. Democrats looking for a path forward might also turn to Elissa Slotkin. The Democratic Michigan senator ran in the middle and won a tight race in a state that Kamala Harris lost. It is certainly harder to find wedge issues in Sherrill and Slotkin’s politics to divide Democratic politicians and voters.
Still, I’d caution against bombastic pronouncements. Even with candidates like Slotkin or Sherrill, where my own priors are more closely aligned. Each race comes with its own nuances. We can extract lessons from those campaigns, but we can’t ignore the individual circumstances. If a headline like “Mikie Sherrill and the death of progressivism” raises an eyebrow for you, that’s good. It should. Such a statement is too far-reaching and definitive to be analytically useful.
We might consider applying the same scrutiny when New York Magazine makes a similarly bold pronouncement—with far less factual basis—about Zohran Mamdani.
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As a Russian expat of a certain generation, I’ve argued with Americans about socialism many times before.
I think a broad generalization to make about all of these races is that all politics is local. The mistake Democrats seem to continue to make is we get all caught up in the mechanics of politics as a hobby. This is because there are all these places online where we can follow and pontificate on politics like it is no more consequential than sports or a soap opera. Because small donors are getting caught up in politics outside their own locality, Democrats have used that fact to fund-raise without cluing people in to how politics really works.
Soon we all forget this stuff is very real and actually very dangerous. To me, all we can say is Mamdani and others reflect the sentiments of local voters on election day in the context of what is bothering those voters. This is however, a useful insight to be used by us arm-chair politicos.
Democrats need to strategically get local. I will follow races in other states with interest, but I am not betting on those horses because I know absolutely nothing about the track, the jockeys and the general conditions of that place. Democrats have made a huge mistake in that they thought they could win races in all these extremely unique local races with their DC biases and lack of local cultural insight. Thus, Democrats fell all over themselves for Amy Mcgrath, et al and ignored what Kentucky voters would really vote for.
Turns out a better Democratic candidate for Kentucky was Andy Beshear, a native son who is fluent in what motivates a Kentucky voter. So, I say Democrats need to get over themselves and think in terms of supporting the right candidate in local races - a candidate that voters respond to.
Pretty much the only way to do that is to invest in local infrastructure and local candidate development. You cannot deux ex machina just drop a candidate into a local race because it looks good on paper. Democrats have got to find and listen to local politicians instead of creating a creature in Washington that appeals to them.
So, Mandami is what New Yorkers wanted. So be it. Get over it Democrats and get after defeating the Republican in that race. To the consultants and the 'establishment' - this is not about you and your expectations. I mean, why would Democrats leave all that grassroots energy on the table? Deploy it against Republicans!
Ahh, the sweet smell of heterodoxy! I'm looking very forward to the first meetings of the Common Sense Club.