How Trump-Skeptics Can Talk About Venezuela
A guide for the perplexed.
Garry Kasparov is the founder and chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative, publisher of The Next Move.
Uriel Epshtein is the CEO of the Renew Democracy Initiative.
Events in Venezuela over the weekend seem to have caught a lot of people off guard (most of all Venezuelan despot Nicolas Maduro, who was yanked out of bed by US special forces). Developing a coherent response hasn’t been easy.
Maduro was a dictator and Venezuela is better off without him. But what about the internationally-recognized democratic opposition? Removing a dictator offers his people a ray of hope. But trading one dictator only to replace him with another is nothing to cheer for.
Democrats—and all those who care about the future of the Free World and the American constitutional order—do not have time for Fiddler on the Roof-style “on the one hand, but on the other hand” indecision.
They need a clear message to assert leadership and erase the notion that democrats are feckless. To distill just how that message should look, we’d like to offer some strategic advice, Goldilocks style.
Too hot
First, let’s take a look at a statement that was too uncritically enthusiastic about what happened in Venezuela. Consider this from Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman:
Grateful for our U.S. military personnel that handled these orders in Venezuela with precision.
I maintain that we have the STRONGEST and MOST LETHAL military in the world—today proves that even more.
He followed this up with:
Less than a year ago, President Biden upped the Maduro bounty to $25,000,000.
Removing Maduro was positive for Venezuela.
As a Democrat, I don’t understand why we can’t acknowledge a good development for Venezuelans—and how deft our military’s execution of that plan was.
Everything Fetterman said was true, but it was a woefully incomplete story. Removing Maduro was good for Venezuela and the raid that removed him was truly impressive.
But keeping on Maduro’s vice president? Not so great. Dismissing the Venezuelan opposition? Even worse. Not having a clear strategy for a democratic transition? Worse still. Senator Fetterman missed this nuance in his response.
Too cold
Next, we’ll look at a statement from a prominent Democrat that was too cool on the overthrow of a brutal dictator. Read this from New York’s Zohran Mamdani:
I was briefed this morning on the U.S. military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, as well as their planned imprisonment in federal custody here in New York City.
Unilaterally attacking a sovereign nation is an act of war and a violation of federal and international law.
This blatant pursuit of regime change doesn’t just affect those abroad, it directly impacts New Yorkers, including tens of thousands of Venezuelans who call this city home. My focus is their safety and the safety of every New Yorker, and my administration will continue to monitor the situation and issue relevant guidance.
Spare a thought for Maduro!
Mayor Mamdani’s statement is devoid of any context. Referring to the ousted dictator simply as President Nicolas Maduro, you’d think American forces had gone and kidnapped the prime minister of Denmark (which… OK) and not a corrupt strongman who oversaw the looting of his country’s economy, multiple stolen elections, massive repression, and the flight of millions of people. Even if the process was mishandled, there is a moral difference, and it is significant.
More than that, Mamdani claims to care about Venezuelan New Yorkers. Before 2021, the Venezuelan-New Yorker community numbered just 15,000. Over the last few years, 230,000 came to the Big Apple as a direct result of Maduro’s policies.
The past week has surely generated complicated emotions given how Trump’s draconian immigration enforcement program has impacted Venezuelans, but this is a community that is almost universally happy to see Maduro face justice. If Zohran Mamdani actually cared about his Venezuelan constituents, he’d acknowledge that. And even if he had no Venezuelan constituents, his statement falls into the trap of partisans failing to condemn their preferred dictators.
The mayor’s rhetoric might play well at a DSA book club, but it’s painfully out of touch with the experiences of people who have lived under a socialist dictatorship.
Just right
What would a statement that’s just right look like? We took a stab at it:
No one should mourn the downfall of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. Across more than a decade in office, Maduro destroyed his nation, stole elections, jailed and disappeared dissenters, and instigated a humanitarian crisis with aftershocks here in the United States and around the world.
The capture of Maduro by American special forces is an impressive feat. We join millions of Venezuelans—including so many Venezuelan-Americans—in celebrating the end of his repressive rule.
However, the removal of one man is merely a tactic, and a tactic is only as good as the strategy it serves. President Trump has not yet articulated his vision for the future of Venezuela, but the first indicators are not good.
Trump dismissed Venezuela’s democratic opposition—recognized by the United States under both Presidents Biden and Trump as the legitimate leadership of the country. Instead he has declared his intention to work with Delcy Rodriguez Gomez, Maduro’s vice president and every bit as much a tyrant as her ousted boss. Trump has demanded billions of dollars in oil concessions, but said nothing about releasing political prisoners.
We have seen how the sacrifice of brave Americans brought democracy, prosperity, and transformative change to Germany and Japan. Our alliances—upheld by our men and women in uniform—continue to protect free peoples in frontline democracies around the world.
The US can be a force for good in the world. Replacing one dictator with another dictator who is more attuned to the American president’s business interests is not that.
That’s just one example of a statement. Whatever you say about Venezuela, it’s important to include the following ingredients:
Nicolas Maduro never won a free and fair election. Even his authoritarian predecessor, Hugo Chavez, secured a legitimate victory at the ballot box before amassing dictatorial powers.
The United States—under the Biden administration—along with Canada, Italy, and several Central and South American nations, recognized Edmundo Gonzalez, not Maduro, as the winner of the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election.
Donald Trump has made no mention of President-elect Gonzalez, and has been openly dismissive of Gonzalez’s political partner, Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado (whom Maduro banned from running for office).
Delcy Rodriguez Gomez—Maduro’s deputy and President Trump’s apparent American client in Caracas—is just as illegitimate as the last dictator. Maduro appointed her as vice president in 2018, and her portfolio included leading the regime’s feared intelligence services. Pleading ignorance and saying “I don’t know how that works,” as Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin did when asked whether Rodriguez was legitimately elected, is no excuse.
Offer a positive alternative to Trump’s imperial behavior. The United States can advance democratic values in the world. The memory of America’s protracted misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan is strong, yet the US also helped build, rebuild, and protect many successful democracies, from our allies in Europe to our partners in Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. But a global defense of freedom requires a serious investment in resources and strategic planning alongside a willingness to responsibly wield power. It cannot be accomplished by Truth Social posts and self-aggrandizing press conferences.
Well reasoned and fair article, thank you.
Mamdani is going to issue guidance. Okay. What kind of guidance? He said relevant but what would that even be? He’s a mayor. This isn’t Covid.