Trump’s 14-Point Iran Deal, Annotated
Notes on a surrender.
Garry Kasparov is the founder and chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative, which publishes The Next Move.
When I wrote my column on Monday, the terms of the US-Iran deal to end the war remained as yet unknown. Early reports offered enough color to weigh in, but there were still voices cautioning patience.
“Don’t rush to pass judgment on the Trump administration,” ran the refrain. “Wait until you see what the actual document says.”
Well, now we have the actual document: a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding set to be signed on Friday. Read on as I break down the agreement, point by point.
P.S.: I will give Trump’s defenders this: The MOU is certainly different from some of the early reports. By that, I mean to say—the actual thing is worse than expected. Every surrender featured in the leaks is in the final draft, yet somehow even more egregious than rumored. The document is a dramatic capitulation in a war that should not have been launched in the manner that it was.
1: The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.
There are two key points here: “together with their allies” and “Lebanon.”
First: Lebanon. The latest war in Lebanon began when Hezbollah, unprovoked, joined Hamas’s assault against Israel on October 8, 2023—just a day after the massacre in southern Israel.
You can criticize the Israeli government’s conduct, but it’s clear that Lebanon would have been spared the misery of war had Hezbollah not dragged the country into an Israeli-Palestinian (note, not Lebanese) conflict. However, that would have run contrary to the Iranian regime’s wishes.
Now, after two-and-a-half years, the Trump administration is forcing a US ally, Israel, to end that fight on terms favorable to the enemy.
On to the question of allies: Who are Iran’s allies? Hezbollah. The Houthis. Hamas. Will these terrorist organizations—lawless groups accountable to no one but their masters in Tehran— “end the war on all fronts”? My instinct, and Hezbollah’s latest drone attack, suggest that the answer is a resounding “no.”
2: The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
Here’s a funny joke! I’m not sure that either side actually believes this one. Does interfering in each other’s internal affairs include assassinating American citizens on American soil, as the Islamic Republic has tried to do on multiple occasions by sending hitmen after my friend Masih Alinejad? Is Trump aware that the Iranian government tried to kill him?
3: The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
There are three possibilities with this one.
The first is that there actually is a final agreement in 60 days. If the text of this MOU is any indication, that agreement will be a weak one.
The next option is that the Trump administration gives Iran more and more time, generously extending the window for a hostile foreign dictatorship. Remember Trump’s fearsome 12-day ultimatum for Russia to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine? A whole lot of nothing happened after that deadline expired last summer.
Finally, there’s the possibility that this all falls apart and the parties return to the warpath. As with the 2015 nuclear deal, this MOU leaves the fundamental questions in the fraught US-Iran relationship unresolved.
Yet this deal is even weaker—and it comes fresh off of a war that left the Iranian regime battered but not broken. Next time, the Iranians will set the terms: the Trump administration is limited in what it can do before the midterm elections, and Tehran knows that closing the Strait of Hormuz works as a means of extracting concessions from America.
4: Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States will lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.
The Treaty of Versailles carried its infamous “war guilt clause,” pinning sole blame for the First World War on Imperial Germany. This paragraph is the MOU’s “war loss clause,” stating plainly that Iran defeated the United States.
Iran gets the blockade lifted just for signing the MOU. If a final agreement is indeed signed, Tehran gets even more—the withdrawal of US forces “from the surrounding areas.” It’s a full-on retreat. The United States cedes its most potent form of leverage to Iran “immediately”—it’s the very first word of paragraph four.
5: Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
This leaves the opening of the Strait of Hormuz up to Iran. Per the previous paragraph, which envisions an immediate termination of the blockade and an eventual complete US withdrawal, third-party enforcement is off the table. In other words, the hostage-taker gets to decide the manner in which they release their captive. And this is supposed to inspire confidence?
6: The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
As I noted in my column on Monday, anything involving Donald Trump and large sums of money reeks of corruption. Earlier reports suggested that the $300 billion for the reconstruction fund would come from the Gulf Arab states, where Trump and his family have all sorts of conflicts of interest.
The text of the MOU isn’t so specific: Not only is there room for fishy business deals in the Gulf, it’s also possible that the US could end up directly paying reparations to an enemy.
Congress must ensure that not a cent of American taxpayer money goes to an Iranian regime that murders its own people, destabilizes its neighbors, and supplies weapons for Russia’s genocidal war of aggression in Ukraine.
7: The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
Here we see surrender in the form of the termination of “all types of sanctions” on Iran. Granted, this is left to a final deal whose ultimate fate remains up in the air, but it’s a declaration of the Trump administration’s intentions.
It all probably feels unthinkable to those who staked their hopes for a free Iran on Donald Trump. Just months after the Iranian authorities murdered tens of thousands of protesters, the administration is dangling total sanctions relief in front of the regime. However, wannabe-strongman Trump has already legitimized dictators in Russia, China, and North Korea. Iran is next on his normalization agenda.
Decades of normalization between the West and Putin’s Russia have already been difficult to undo, even after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There is a lot of money on the line for companies and craven businesspeople who put the bottom line ahead of any moral red lines. The reintegration of Iran into the global economy would mean that if sanctions are imposed again in the future, there will be many companies and countries that have a vested interest in non-compliance.
At least that sanctions relief for the Islamic Republic is still somewhere off in the future. It’s not something that kicks in right away—right? Right?
8: The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
Donald Trump and I share this in common: We both criticized the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated under President Obama, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA. In his first term, Trump even withdrew from that agreement.
Trump is now hurtling towards a nuclear deal even flimsier than the one he blasted for being too weak. The Iranian government doesn’t just get diplomatic and financial reprieve on the nuclear file, it gets it in the context of a US surrender after a failed war.
9: Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
Here the United States boxes itself in. Iran gets to revert to the status quo ante on the nuclear issue, while getting a commitment of no additional US forces in the region. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has plenty of non-nuclear means of wreaking havoc in the region.
10: The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
After reading paragraph seven, you might be forgiven for thinking that the massive sanctions relief that Washington is planning for the Islamic Republic will depend upon Iran meeting some conditions. At the very least, that payday would have to wait for the much-talked-about final agreement.
Well, just a few paragraphs later, we learn that this is actually incorrect. This administration just can’t help itself: the sanctions waivers start right away, once again, with no enforcement mechanism to make that “yuge” concession worth the cost.
11: The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
At this point, I am expecting to see a new Trump Tower rise over the Tehran skyline.
12: The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.
Once more, we have to ask: Where is the enforcement? Why is enforcement not included directly in the text of the deal?
13: After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
Excuse me—”the United States of America and Iran will start negotiations”? What is there left for Iran to negotiate over? The MOU is already an incredible windfall for Iran and defeat for the US, even without a final agreement. America is in deep trouble if the Iranian leadership is familiar with the phrase “take the money and run.”
14: The final deal will be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
Ah, that changes everything! The United Nations is a famously reliable institution, quite proficient at preventing and ending wars. I retract all of my critiques of Trump’s deal with Iran. Carry on (that is, unless Trump defunds the UN before it ratifies his own agreement).
So, that’s the Art of the Deal.
As you mentioned and I have written in other notes, it’s the $300 Billion grift that worries me the most.
I see that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff will be more than happy to distribute and facilitate the money for the interest of the Trump family.
The GCC has to know this? Right?
Anything that suspends active hostilities is good. But your analysis is spot on, this is a surrender in a war that is: 1) a war of choice: not plainly forced by immediate necessity; 2) illegal or legally rotten: at minimum deeply vulnerable under both international and constitutional war-powers analysis; 3) strategically foolish: it did almost nothing to solve the nuclear problem; 4) diplomatically humiliating: the U.S. appears to trade real leverage for Iranian promises and procedural fog; 5) morally obscene: the dead do not come back because someone later signs an MOU in clean rooms.