The train journey captures what so many people miss sitting in DC think tanks: Ukraine’s reality is endurance, not theory. Four years of no flights. Overnight trains through war zones. Millions of people living what looks like WWII footage but is actually Sunday commute.
My great-grandparents left Ukraine generations ago. Reading this, I’m thinking about what they fled, what they hoped they were leaving behind, and how history doesn’t stay buried just because we want it to.
Your mom made the reverse journey fifty years ago when USSR collapse was “unimaginable.” Now you’re going back during a war that was “unthinkable” a few years ago. That’s the pattern, history doesn’t run on rails, and the things we assume are permanent turn out to be contingent.
The RAND prediction and the “realist” school kept saying Ukraine would fold because their models don’t account for what people will fight for when the alternative is erasure. They measured military hardware ratios and assumed behavior follows from material advantage. Turns out humans don’t optimize the way spreadsheets predict. They lack behavioral understanding.
The $15M in direct aid matters more than ten think tank papers. You can’t grasp what resilience looks like from a conference room. You have to ride the train.
Gold And Silver Freefall: The Storm Before The Calm
If there are lessons from the 2008 minicrash of the markets is that the fall in the equity markets was preceded by the fall in gold and silver Once the bottom in equities and bonds occurred the metals tripled in price with gold going from about $700 per oz to 1900 and silver from $8 to 49
The news streaming is replete with an expected equity crash now due to the Iranian war and Cheeto’s impulsive demented policy decisions The metals have taken a nosedive with gold going from $5400 to currently 4400 and silver $120 to 70 and the equity markets are moving down But there’s another wrinkle in the mix this time Bullion banks are urgently trying to close contracts at the end of the month which has put downward pressure on both metals
The lesson now is that the precious metals bull market will soon resume and new highs will be attained and for the unschooled hang tight Why are metals moving in such upward directions? One word, safety in a chaotic world
The train journey captures what so many people miss sitting in DC think tanks: Ukraine’s reality is endurance, not theory. Four years of no flights. Overnight trains through war zones. Millions of people living what looks like WWII footage but is actually Sunday commute.
My great-grandparents left Ukraine generations ago. Reading this, I’m thinking about what they fled, what they hoped they were leaving behind, and how history doesn’t stay buried just because we want it to.
Your mom made the reverse journey fifty years ago when USSR collapse was “unimaginable.” Now you’re going back during a war that was “unthinkable” a few years ago. That’s the pattern, history doesn’t run on rails, and the things we assume are permanent turn out to be contingent.
The RAND prediction and the “realist” school kept saying Ukraine would fold because their models don’t account for what people will fight for when the alternative is erasure. They measured military hardware ratios and assumed behavior follows from material advantage. Turns out humans don’t optimize the way spreadsheets predict. They lack behavioral understanding.
The $15M in direct aid matters more than ten think tank papers. You can’t grasp what resilience looks like from a conference room. You have to ride the train.
Looking forward to the dispatches.
—Johan
Thank you!!
Stay strong. Stay safe. Keep up the good work.
Gold And Silver Freefall: The Storm Before The Calm
If there are lessons from the 2008 minicrash of the markets is that the fall in the equity markets was preceded by the fall in gold and silver Once the bottom in equities and bonds occurred the metals tripled in price with gold going from about $700 per oz to 1900 and silver from $8 to 49
The news streaming is replete with an expected equity crash now due to the Iranian war and Cheeto’s impulsive demented policy decisions The metals have taken a nosedive with gold going from $5400 to currently 4400 and silver $120 to 70 and the equity markets are moving down But there’s another wrinkle in the mix this time Bullion banks are urgently trying to close contracts at the end of the month which has put downward pressure on both metals
The lesson now is that the precious metals bull market will soon resume and new highs will be attained and for the unschooled hang tight Why are metals moving in such upward directions? One word, safety in a chaotic world