Putin Is Blocking Peace—But Trump Holds the Cards
Amb. Bill Taylor, the former top diplomat to Ukraine, argues that if President Trump wants a deal, he has the ability to force Putin’s hand.
By Ambassador William B. Taylor
Since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, he has sought to fulfill one of his most prominent campaign promises: a swift end to the war in Ukraine. His administration has taken early steps to broker a broad ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine—a necessary first move toward peace.
Yet despite his efforts, a durable ceasefire has not materialized. To understand why, and to see a path forward, two essential truths must be acknowledged.
First, Russian President Vladimir Putin is deliberately stalling. He is engaging in talks without seriously committing to peace, using negotiations as a cover to continue his assault.
Second, President Trump holds real leverage to compel Putin to cooperate—leverage that, so far, has not been used.
Now is the time to apply that pressure.
Putin is Playing for Time
Putin’s stalling tactics are hardly new. Before US officials met separately with Ukrainians and Russians in Saudi Arabia, President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had agreed on a broad, 30-day ceasefire, which would have temporarily stopped fighting on the ground, air, and sea.
Putin rejected the plan. He grudgingly agreed to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure but within days launched one of Russia’s most destructive attacks on Ukraine’s power grid of the war, a clear indication that he is not serious about a ceasefire.
The next round of talks in Saudi Arabia was scarcely different. Ukraine agreed to a Black Sea ceasefire. Russia initially accepted, but then refused to implement it unless the United States lifted some sanctions—conditions not mentioned in the joint statements.
The pattern is clear. While Trump and Zelenskyy agree on peace proposals, Putin offers a minimal show of cooperation. He works to prolong the fighting in hopes that his forces can grind forward, seizing more Ukrainian territory—bit by bit, village by village.
The Leverage at Trump’s Fingertips
Donald Trump’s book, The Art of the Deal, declares that “Leverage is having something the other guy wants. Or better yet, needs. Or best of all, simply can’t do without.” As president, he has leverage.
First, Putin craves a return to big power politics with the West. Since his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he has been shunned by most Western leaders and indicted by the International Criminal Court for the war crime of kidnapping Ukrainian children—severely limiting his ability to travel. Only President Trump is willing and able to invite Putin back into civilized international community.
Second, the Trump administration could maintain—or even increase—the flow of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. This would signal that the United States, alongside Europe, remains committed to Ukraine’s defense, showing Russia that it cannot win on the battlefield.
Third, the civilian Russian economy is buckling under the pressure of Western sanctions. Most Russian banks are cut off from the global financial system, importers scramble to obtain advanced electronics for weapons, and Russian oil exporters have to rely on a “shadow fleet” of aging tankers. Though sanctions can be skirted, they make doing business far more costly. Russian oligarchs, in particular, are desperate to escape travel bans and asset freezes—real bargaining power Trump could use if Russia continues to stall negotiations.
The Path to Ending the War
Efforts to secure a ceasefire—covering energy systems, the Black Sea, and eventually air and land—are preliminary steps toward a final settlement that ends the war. Once the shooting stops, real negotiations can begin.
Some issues will be addressed between Ukrainians and Russians, with American and European participation: temporary borders, reparations, the return of abducted Ukrainian children, prisoner exchanges, the repatriation of Ukrainian civilians held in Russia, and accountability for war crimes. Other issues will be negotiated between Ukraine and its Western partners—without Russia. These will focus on Ukraine’s security during the ceasefire and into the future.
A sovereign, independent, democratic Ukraine—the stated goal of the Trump administration—will require long-term security to prosper. Part of that security will come through membership in the European Union, a process already well underway. To ensure Russia does not violate the ceasefire, Western nations are planning to establish and deploy a European deterrent force for Ukraine. By definition, this force will be developed by Europeans and Ukrainians and will not be the subject of negotiation with Moscow. Ukraine is a sovereign nation, free to determine its own security arrangements in partnership with its allies.
The strongest, most cost-effective, and most credible security guarantee is NATO membership for Ukraine. While not imminent, this option should remain on the table. Again, Russia has no say in what security arrangements Ukraine chooses to pursue.
Negotiations toward a long-term settlement will take months—likely more. During that time, the ceasefire will take hold, the European deterrent force will deploy, and Ukraine can begin the long process of recovery and reconstruction—financed, at least initially, by Russian central bank assets currently frozen in Western banks. (This is another issue that should be discussed among Western allies, not with Russians.)
At some point, the Ukrainian president and parliament will be able to lift martial law and allow a semblance of normalcy to return. At that time, political activity will recommence, political parties will begin campaigns for elections, and wartime restrictions on civil liberties can be relaxed.
The Ukrainians have defended their country—and European democracy and American security—since the initial Russian invasion in 2014 and for more than three years of the ongoing, massive and brutal full-scale invasion. A just and lasting peace in Ukraine that ends this war is possible—but only if President Trump plays the cards he holds.
William B. Taylor, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, is currently a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Ambassador Bill Taylor: my heart goes out to the ukrainian people, a people who have stoically suffered the bombing of their cities and infrastructure, the ruination of their farms, the kidnapping of their children and the many lies told by putin, amongst many other horrible things. i sincerely hope they can survive this peace process, despite the fact that agent orange is a liar himself who wishes evil to befall all who cross his path. as it now stands, i'm absolutely unconvinced that putin will agree to peace in ukraine unless he leaves the international stage in a hearse.
Great piece. Missing item: bring back pros like Ambassador Taylor to get the deal done.