I know there were a few reasons for him blowing up Iran…just like I used to have a few reasons to go to the gym when I was in college (health, muscles, cute girls…)
But, it’s the Perfect incentive trap: If they lose power, they face investigation and consequences. So maintaining power becomes existential, not political.
When losing office means potential prison, leaders don’t optimize for good governance, they optimize for staying in power by any means necessary. War, emergency powers, suppressing opposition, provoking crises that justify extraordinary measures…all become rational strategies.
This is why authoritarian systems become self-reinforcing. The initial abuses create the necessity for more abuses to avoid accountability for the first ones. The corruption compounds until leaving power peacefully becomes impossible.
They aren’t governing, They’re fortifying. Every norm broken, every institution captured, every crisis manufactured makes voluntary departure less viable.
The system locks them in…and locks everyone else out.
Historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat who has studied in depth past fascist regimes joined Elias in a illuminating YouTube video(https://bit.ly/4lb0QbA) to discuss Cheeto’s authoritarian reach with the CNPP(Christian Nationalist Pedo Party) Even though he sounds like an idiot/moron, make no mistake Cheeto is one of the most skilled propagandist in the last 50y and the CNPP plan to destroy America
There is no doubt that Cheeto’s ICE/CBP can be labeled as a paramilitary force(Gestapo) of the CNPP(Christian Nationalist Pedo Party) Either you are with our fascist movement or you’re not When a group forms you’re either part of our group or you’re a childless cat lady, you’re either part of the group or you’re labeled a globalist, ie Jewish enemy and is everywhere and must be ostracized Cheeto despises Americans unless some Americans are loyal to him Being a malignant narcissist everything revolves around Cheeto’s ego and his need for adulation
Fascist movements such as CNPP and their dictators become more reckless as their polling numbers go down NEVER give up on elections Protests are so so so important Do not minimize your power A Big Tent protest is coming involving all facets of American society(labor unions etc)
The Democrats aren’t interested in this issue except to grandstand against Trump. Given his behavior during this presidency I don’t blame them, but let’s not pretend that debate would lead to optimal outcomes in this case. So far Trump has managed to assemble a broad coalition of Arab states against Iran and is well on the way to neutering all their offensive capabilities. Pretty good so far.
Hoping for the end of the theocratic regime in Iran. Let’s not forget that it’s also corrupt and incompetent: inflation running 48% a year, a serious water crisis (partly climate change, but also incompetent management.
Probability of removing it? Far from 100%. They’re dug in and still have a base.
News this morning: the US is arming the Kurds (about 15% of the population). Also Iran may be running out of missiles.
> Ayatollah Khamenei is not going to be brought back to life. The world as it existed before February 28 cannot be restored. We should long for neither.
We’ll see in a few months or years.
Khomani deserved to die, but do the Iranian people deserve the resulting chaos?
I would bet good money on NO. Actually, I would do that on the betting markets except for A) The resolution criteria would be so vague and B) I’d feel awful rooting for such an horrific outcome
They need to conscript a Dad's Army and leave the youn-guns alone 'cuz no one cared about all the old and older people that dies or are now permanently crippled by covid.
.
An old half crippled mechatronic suited army of inexhaustible fogeys is what we need.
.
Promise to pay off all your medical bills even if you come back in a tin bucket. (at least you won't be living in your very elderly Mom's basement anymore or at least when you come back you can more conveniently be put on a sunny window sill. ).
As Feynman said his old man was in the "uniform" business and he said categorically that these people are the SAME uniform on as uniform off - they are the same man.
.
^^^ That really cleared up a LOT of BS for me...
.
That is not a great reality to come to that actual ground truth.
Meanwhile Covid killed at least 2 million of us and counting - and a 9-11's worth of death back to back day after day after day after day...
.
You'd think that after Covid that we the world of "Peeps" would be given time to recover but as I maintained a number of years ago predatory actors (on the world stage) would seek to put the boot in and crunch in the ribs and ribs cages of those still trying to get up from their stupor and back on their feet.
.
In a sense Covid 19 killed the ISIS and the former business of the likes of the Taliban...
.
So seems like an all out Iranian conflict that is untransactable on the ground will give whatever new flavors of ISIS a new BOOST.
.
Such assholes maaaaan.
.
And we are overdue for another recession...
.
Basic playbook of the Jamie Dimon's of the world -the something for nothing brigade - once gain - transfer of assets on massive scale from those that are hanging on barely by their finger nails.
.
IF you are super rich - one / you can weather almost any financial storm - so when everything goes to shit Peeps like Ray Dalio and X- Goldman Sachs folks get to buy everything UP that is left to buy...
.
It's like Monty Python - THE VERY BIG CORPORATION OF AMERICA ... there is nothing left to buy...
.
A task force to see if the "Meaning of Life" offers any potential extra-realms that can be bought...
.
But the conclusion is that "People aren't wearing enough hats these days ... ".
Ray Dalio does not want people to own anything - by design - IF a Billionaire is telling you to do one thing and is giving you advise - DO THE EXACT OPPOSITE.
Analysis of the Iran conflict has largely been silent on one crucial contingency: mounting American casualties in an unpopular war may be the final straw for many Americans who have thus far silently endured Trump 2.0. Analysis must come before ideology.
I know there were a few reasons for him blowing up Iran…just like I used to have a few reasons to go to the gym when I was in college (health, muscles, cute girls…)
But, it’s the Perfect incentive trap: If they lose power, they face investigation and consequences. So maintaining power becomes existential, not political.
When losing office means potential prison, leaders don’t optimize for good governance, they optimize for staying in power by any means necessary. War, emergency powers, suppressing opposition, provoking crises that justify extraordinary measures…all become rational strategies.
This is why authoritarian systems become self-reinforcing. The initial abuses create the necessity for more abuses to avoid accountability for the first ones. The corruption compounds until leaving power peacefully becomes impossible.
They aren’t governing, They’re fortifying. Every norm broken, every institution captured, every crisis manufactured makes voluntary departure less viable.
The system locks them in…and locks everyone else out.
Cheeto’s Gestapo Demands Loyalty
Historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat who has studied in depth past fascist regimes joined Elias in a illuminating YouTube video(https://bit.ly/4lb0QbA) to discuss Cheeto’s authoritarian reach with the CNPP(Christian Nationalist Pedo Party) Even though he sounds like an idiot/moron, make no mistake Cheeto is one of the most skilled propagandist in the last 50y and the CNPP plan to destroy America
There is no doubt that Cheeto’s ICE/CBP can be labeled as a paramilitary force(Gestapo) of the CNPP(Christian Nationalist Pedo Party) Either you are with our fascist movement or you’re not When a group forms you’re either part of our group or you’re a childless cat lady, you’re either part of the group or you’re labeled a globalist, ie Jewish enemy and is everywhere and must be ostracized Cheeto despises Americans unless some Americans are loyal to him Being a malignant narcissist everything revolves around Cheeto’s ego and his need for adulation
Fascist movements such as CNPP and their dictators become more reckless as their polling numbers go down NEVER give up on elections Protests are so so so important Do not minimize your power A Big Tent protest is coming involving all facets of American society(labor unions etc)
The Democrats aren’t interested in this issue except to grandstand against Trump. Given his behavior during this presidency I don’t blame them, but let’s not pretend that debate would lead to optimal outcomes in this case. So far Trump has managed to assemble a broad coalition of Arab states against Iran and is well on the way to neutering all their offensive capabilities. Pretty good so far.
"There’s also a larger dilemma: How do the Democrats suggest we deal with bad actors who abuse the rules of the international system?"
Impeach them?
Hoping for the end of the theocratic regime in Iran. Let’s not forget that it’s also corrupt and incompetent: inflation running 48% a year, a serious water crisis (partly climate change, but also incompetent management.
Probability of removing it? Far from 100%. They’re dug in and still have a base.
News this morning: the US is arming the Kurds (about 15% of the population). Also Iran may be running out of missiles.
Interesting, considering the U.S. habit of betraying the Kurds.
Yes, I’m not real optimistic, but I thought I’d mention it.
One of if not the best piece on the attack on Iran and elimination of Khomenie I've seen vis-a-vis Trump's action.
My take
https://feisal.substack.com/p/war-against-iran-now-what?r=9pv9y&utm_medium=ios
America, Iran & Israel are all currently being led by rogue state actors. Russia is the go-between for them.
Khamenei's death should ideally have been at the hands of his own citizens like Mussolini in 1945, or in a cell at the Hague like with Milosevic.
> Ayatollah Khamenei is not going to be brought back to life. The world as it existed before February 28 cannot be restored. We should long for neither.
We’ll see in a few months or years.
Khomani deserved to die, but do the Iranian people deserve the resulting chaos?
I would bet good money on NO. Actually, I would do that on the betting markets except for A) The resolution criteria would be so vague and B) I’d feel awful rooting for such an horrific outcome
As we all say even Hamas are critics...
.
Hollywoo is not gonna save us.
Taylor Swift is the ONLY winner in this scenario.
.
.
(This is What the Decommissioned War Games computer that used to be under Cheyanne mountain has concluded.).
.
"Look What You Made Me Do ".
.
There is ONLY the Military Industrial Taylor Swift, Dorito - Automobile - Big Pharma'd - Footballed - Media Complex and nothing else.
.
The Americans and their helmet design figure that they are not going to be shot in the back of the head.
.
OR be trapped in a trench on an isthmus ... shot at from both sides...
.
This is an obvious failure for the layout of Maralago(o) ...
.
Just ripe for an Obama movie oil tanker that goes up on the beach and explodes like Water World...
.
Dennis Hopper / NEW ISIS attack.
.
What was that movie called ?
.
So realistic.
.
Leave The World Behind - ship scene ...
.
This apparently IS the reality inversion.
.
[Another Chat Gpt'd moron script.].
.
Where nobody knows HOW to do anything.
.
At all.
.
.
They need to conscript a Dad's Army and leave the youn-guns alone 'cuz no one cared about all the old and older people that dies or are now permanently crippled by covid.
.
An old half crippled mechatronic suited army of inexhaustible fogeys is what we need.
.
Promise to pay off all your medical bills even if you come back in a tin bucket. (at least you won't be living in your very elderly Mom's basement anymore or at least when you come back you can more conveniently be put on a sunny window sill. ).
.
A cross between Terminator and Dad's Army.
.
[Sounds too much like fallout Eric .].
.
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvr6X054xLY
.
^^^ Dad's Army (Theme Tune)... + actors.
.
Come-on Dunkirk spirit - We can doooo this...
.
As Feynman said his old man was in the "uniform" business and he said categorically that these people are the SAME uniform on as uniform off - they are the same man.
.
^^^ That really cleared up a LOT of BS for me...
.
That is not a great reality to come to that actual ground truth.
.
Meanwhile Covid killed at least 2 million of us and counting - and a 9-11's worth of death back to back day after day after day after day...
.
You'd think that after Covid that we the world of "Peeps" would be given time to recover but as I maintained a number of years ago predatory actors (on the world stage) would seek to put the boot in and crunch in the ribs and ribs cages of those still trying to get up from their stupor and back on their feet.
.
In a sense Covid 19 killed the ISIS and the former business of the likes of the Taliban...
.
So seems like an all out Iranian conflict that is untransactable on the ground will give whatever new flavors of ISIS a new BOOST.
.
Such assholes maaaaan.
.
And we are overdue for another recession...
.
Basic playbook of the Jamie Dimon's of the world -the something for nothing brigade - once gain - transfer of assets on massive scale from those that are hanging on barely by their finger nails.
.
IF you are super rich - one / you can weather almost any financial storm - so when everything goes to shit Peeps like Ray Dalio and X- Goldman Sachs folks get to buy everything UP that is left to buy...
.
It's like Monty Python - THE VERY BIG CORPORATION OF AMERICA ... there is nothing left to buy...
.
A task force to see if the "Meaning of Life" offers any potential extra-realms that can be bought...
.
But the conclusion is that "People aren't wearing enough hats these days ... ".
.
^^^ QED.
.
__________________________________________________________________
.
Ray Dalio does not want people to own anything - by design - IF a Billionaire is telling you to do one thing and is giving you advise - DO THE EXACT OPPOSITE.
.
Analysis of the Iran conflict has largely been silent on one crucial contingency: mounting American casualties in an unpopular war may be the final straw for many Americans who have thus far silently endured Trump 2.0. Analysis must come before ideology.