Yes Evan — and that is precisely the point many still underestimate.
If Russia “wins”, it will not look like a dramatic parade in Kyiv, but rather a slow strategic shift: a weakened Ukraine, a fractured West, and a precedent that borders in Europe can be changed by force.
The real consequence is not territorial — it is psychological and political.
A Russian success would validate coercion as a tool of statecraft, embolden revisionist powers, and test NATO’s credibility, particularly on its eastern flank. We have already seen how Moscow probes for weakness; a perceived victory would only accelerate that behaviour.
In that sense, the question is not whether Russia wins territory — but whether it wins the future rules of the European security order.
…soviet union fell not because of the pressure of the west, it was simple and straight forward BANKRUPTCY, financial, social economic and all together system was a total sham and failure, then 90s struck, all old cows of soviet era they were milking were gone like ukraine and rest of the 14 “republics” that were suffering oppression and exploitation by kremlin and rusha found itself in complete disarray and shambles, no rules or law, anyone who could make money by doing whatever it takes in a lawless society took on that task with tenacity of raw capitalism and all the way to anarchy, everyone was stealing EVERYTHING, military officers selling from guns and amos, to Mig jets, literally on FUCKING EBAY, gangs begin to emerge and moscow’s streets start to be deadly, cars of gangsters hitting each other were blowing up while driving, then putin came to power and as an expert on criminality, that was his area of expertise while in KGB, he brought all that to order
…”пахан на зоне” (main gangster in a whole prison) took control and made all oligarchs his subjects, whoever didn’t come along, fell of a window or ate something that wasn’t good for their health…
…i went down a line of history for a reason, my point is: gangsters never produced anything, just as any regime is systemic lawlessness and corruption, do what do you think conditions of putin’s country is after all his mafia state economy?
…while idiots around the world were looking up the sky waiting for putin’s nukes he doesn’t have, he highjacked the world with a fucking screwdriver, his weapons are: PROPAGANDA, CORRUPTION and TERRORISM
RussiaIsLosing. It’s losing territory it previously occupied and Ukraine has created a 150 km deep kill zone along Zaporitzhia front. Little chance of Russia winning given the devastation of its economy and damage to its oil fields
Putin doesn’t need a "win", he simply cannot afford to lose! Losing means an end to his reign as an empire builder and exposes him to face accountability for his ruthless aggression and merciless war crimes. US proxy power provided by Donald Trump would end with the fall of the Trump Regime. Putin needs Trump and will continue to coach him on ways to hold onto power and control at any cost. Expect more death, destruction and deception ahead. Netanyahu will also benefit from the chaos .
Remember the Soviet–Afghan War that took place from 1979 to 1989? The Soviet Union and the Afghan military fought against the Afghan Mujahideen rebels who in the end defeated the Russians and forced their withdrawal
Although Soviet forces controlled the cities and towns, they were unable to defeat the guerrilla fighters who controlled the countryside and received significant support from other countries like the United States. The costly and bloody drawn-out conflict contributed to the decline and eventual collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Cheeto’s Propaganda Machine: Conspiracy Theories And Lies
Since the Reagan years there has been a gradual increased animosity toward the press because the Republican Nazis believe they get a “raw deal” from a biased press corps This has been evaluated and reviewed and this point of view doesn’t hold water But like everything the far right claims these days “everybody is against us” Poor me I’m a victim once again This has been the rallying cry of the Nazi Republicans now actually creating a conspiracy theory around being a victim
Conspiracy theories become a form of right wing propaganda even though the propaganda has been debunked in past As the saying goes “Just keep repeating the lies until people believe the lies”
Hidden behind the propaganda is that you’re not patriotic or have no allegiance to the flag unless you support and believe in the conspiracy theory whatever it may be Right wing twisted mental sociopaths work daily on deceiving the American public
Then there are the threats to people’s intelligence FCC chair Carr threatens network licensing…which by the way he can’t do…and will support Ellison’s CBS debacle along with other attempts to confuse the American people and has demanded like any fascist that the media needs to be policed Publicly a right wing lawyer steeped in this propaganda effort has said, “We need to get the libs off the air” Cheeto needs to be reported to the FCC for all his lies
Cheeto’s whole point behind the fascist attack of the media is to suppress and intimidate the media so they won’t report the truth It’s right out of the Nazi Republican authoritarian playbook called Project 2025 But WE the People will insist on news reporting that is honest and substantiated and let the weak minds be manipulated
…rusha is a GENETIC GARBAGE, it’s not derogatory it’s what happens when throughout the whole history of the country and last century they literally exterminated all intelligent and free thinking people generation to generation and only people left who oppressed them or those who kept their mouth shut in order to survive, that country always was full of criminals, not much to lose there, we used to say if someone got locked up, they got from a “big prison” to a “small” one, major problem of putin’s country that it HAS NO HUMAN RESOURCES to build society that makes sense for the rest of the world, its all gone with all those republics, which they were milking all through the soviet years, to become their own sovereign entities, which infuriated putin, a country of people who never ever think of their future because everyone knows nothings good is coming tomorrow,
…soviet union forcefully inbred stupidity and putin finished it off
…dreadful place in and out, Ukraine on the other hand is different, but it’s three times smaller population then rusha and its loses are very unequal not by quantity, but by quality of loses with future potential to rebuild their country, any war is a horrible thing, specially for the nation that did not want it, but have to face it and spend precious resources not on making their people live better, but for the simple task to survive, FUCK putin ! …GLORY TO UKRAINE 🇺🇦 !
Gottesman identifies the right question but leaves it open: why should Americans care about Narva? The structural answer is not moral but strategic. The value of a commitment system like NATO lies entirely in its unconditional credibility. A commitment that is conditioned on the size of the territory being defended, or the number of Russian speakers in it, is not a commitment at all. Once that conditionality becomes visible, every member state recalculates its security independently. That is the end of collective security, not as a moral failure, but as a structural collapse.
^^^ This made for interesting reading... Potted History of dividing up an Entire Soviet Navy (almost) and whole bunch of stray Nukes... and other "Goodies",
.
Just a reminder that WAR is theft - and little else - meanwhile Ukraine historically has the Former Soviet Union's principal and best assets (although not culturally per se but military and space assets + massive resources all the way to serious agriculture.). Ukraine is a massive country (possibly the largest "In" Europe - I haven't looked that up.).
.
Pulling out a map of Estonia's exact location it's hard not to burst out laughing...
.
Very impressed by Estonia's strides and metrics and frankly incredible progress - but any armed conflict would be waaaaaaay more expensive than what the country is able to produce over a fifty year period (slight exaggeration).
.
I haven't read German general - Carlo Masala's 120 page treatise of "Hey Have you considered taking Estonia instead" whereas the GLORIUS NATION of Kazakhstan would (theoretically be a more logical choice) for "Where to Invade NEXT..." Russian version. At the time they had a 4th ranking number of nuclear war heads and missiles... 4th GREATEST nuclear power in the world ! One of several awkward go-between states for all things tricky and Russian. [Not just a grabbed up buffer state from yester year.] <--- The Americans didn't really help much then either.
.
It's like that Gary Larsen Cartoon where the Bear points to the other bear to shoot - behind his back - as seen through the telescopic gun sight of the hunter. (as per Masala's Thesis ). [ I didn't say Tikka Masala - Nor General Akbar's fish sticks - brother in law. ].
.
[Those board games look cool - Tales of the Loop - who would imagine or horse themed WWII board games ?].
.
.
Could be cool for someone on those rainy days ... in the high desert of New Mexi-hell that I'm trying to escape from.
yeah yeah I do in cursory fashion know all the thousand year histories of the region...
.
Those Teutonic Knights - <--- Total losers - the LEAST successful branch of the "Brotherhood"... jerks.
.
But they have cool wooden skirts that help in not getting their legs chopped off - quite so much ... and NOT all of the Trakehners (their horse's / mounts) are bat-shit crazy between the ears (too much Arabian) and have navicular complex... 'cuz the post WWII breeders had no fucking idea what they were doing...
.
Speaking of which I have to do my horse - Monty - Monty's feet ... (named for Catch The Full Monty) not that asshole Montgomery who couldn't ride a horse a horse to save his life.
.
You can tell a lot about a person by how they ride and treat their horses...
.
Fucking asswipe obsessed with Romel's horse.
.
Jerks - idiots and endless abuse.
,'After the occupation...
.
"Which one is Romel's horse ???".
.
-"Ohhhh errrr THIS ONE ... YES , he's really EASY to ride - very calm temperament for a stallion you totally won't be spending MORE time going vertically than horizontally ... NOPE... ".
.
"Ohhh you want to ride 'Widow maker" I mean Rommel's mount... SURE...".
They Murdered Rommel's White Horse ^^^ From Mark Felton Productions.
.
I have to say as FEI / Grand Prix horse trainer I was disappointed to see pictures of
.
Field Marshal Bernard (Law) Montgomery, 1st Viscount Montgomery of Alamein, <--- blah blah blah...
.
Absolutely reads as a total fucking (clueless asshole)... Reads as Erratic hubris on a horse.
.
Maybe like Carlo Masala ? Who knows why people even write such things.
.
In the 1970s / 80s and 90s it was hard to find anyone to join the modern German Wehrmacht / Bundeswehr just for massive guilt complex and distancing themselves from their actual past.
.
A lot of modern German tank spares are manufactured in so called "Slavic" states to save money.
.
The American tanks are completely inoperable in any practical fashion in a European theatre of war. Woefully impractical and expensive - primary design criteria center around "Religious Oil War" contingencies and little else with heavily supported / impregnable bases easily in reach.
.
+ Spare parts coming for the USA would be incredibly slow to the point of uselessness...
.
Actually not very likely that USA would stop an imaginary invasion of Estonia...
Yes Evan — and that is precisely the point many still underestimate.
If Russia “wins”, it will not look like a dramatic parade in Kyiv, but rather a slow strategic shift: a weakened Ukraine, a fractured West, and a precedent that borders in Europe can be changed by force.
The real consequence is not territorial — it is psychological and political.
A Russian success would validate coercion as a tool of statecraft, embolden revisionist powers, and test NATO’s credibility, particularly on its eastern flank. We have already seen how Moscow probes for weakness; a perceived victory would only accelerate that behaviour.
In that sense, the question is not whether Russia wins territory — but whether it wins the future rules of the European security order.
And that is a much bigger stakes game.
…they will NEVER WIN putin’s “empire” is over
…i wrote this a year ago:
…soviet union fell not because of the pressure of the west, it was simple and straight forward BANKRUPTCY, financial, social economic and all together system was a total sham and failure, then 90s struck, all old cows of soviet era they were milking were gone like ukraine and rest of the 14 “republics” that were suffering oppression and exploitation by kremlin and rusha found itself in complete disarray and shambles, no rules or law, anyone who could make money by doing whatever it takes in a lawless society took on that task with tenacity of raw capitalism and all the way to anarchy, everyone was stealing EVERYTHING, military officers selling from guns and amos, to Mig jets, literally on FUCKING EBAY, gangs begin to emerge and moscow’s streets start to be deadly, cars of gangsters hitting each other were blowing up while driving, then putin came to power and as an expert on criminality, that was his area of expertise while in KGB, he brought all that to order
…”пахан на зоне” (main gangster in a whole prison) took control and made all oligarchs his subjects, whoever didn’t come along, fell of a window or ate something that wasn’t good for their health…
…i went down a line of history for a reason, my point is: gangsters never produced anything, just as any regime is systemic lawlessness and corruption, do what do you think conditions of putin’s country is after all his mafia state economy?
…while idiots around the world were looking up the sky waiting for putin’s nukes he doesn’t have, he highjacked the world with a fucking screwdriver, his weapons are: PROPAGANDA, CORRUPTION and TERRORISM
This one is for the Americans wondering why we should care about Ukraine…
RussiaIsLosing. It’s losing territory it previously occupied and Ukraine has created a 150 km deep kill zone along Zaporitzhia front. Little chance of Russia winning given the devastation of its economy and damage to its oil fields
And yet things could change. It's been a very long war, with a lot of swings.
I'm happy the current paradigm favors Ukraine.
Evan,
A Russian “win,” besides possibly emboldening Russia to invade Estonia, would also likely embolden China to invade Taiwan.
In fact, very sadly, mostly because of the insanity of the Trump regime, I actually think it’s too late and only a matter of time before that happens.
And will be part of Trump’s godawful legacy, if humanity itself even survives the next three years.
Putin doesn’t need a "win", he simply cannot afford to lose! Losing means an end to his reign as an empire builder and exposes him to face accountability for his ruthless aggression and merciless war crimes. US proxy power provided by Donald Trump would end with the fall of the Trump Regime. Putin needs Trump and will continue to coach him on ways to hold onto power and control at any cost. Expect more death, destruction and deception ahead. Netanyahu will also benefit from the chaos .
Remember the Soviet–Afghan War that took place from 1979 to 1989? The Soviet Union and the Afghan military fought against the Afghan Mujahideen rebels who in the end defeated the Russians and forced their withdrawal
Although Soviet forces controlled the cities and towns, they were unable to defeat the guerrilla fighters who controlled the countryside and received significant support from other countries like the United States. The costly and bloody drawn-out conflict contributed to the decline and eventual collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Cheeto’s Propaganda Machine: Conspiracy Theories And Lies
Since the Reagan years there has been a gradual increased animosity toward the press because the Republican Nazis believe they get a “raw deal” from a biased press corps This has been evaluated and reviewed and this point of view doesn’t hold water But like everything the far right claims these days “everybody is against us” Poor me I’m a victim once again This has been the rallying cry of the Nazi Republicans now actually creating a conspiracy theory around being a victim
Conspiracy theories become a form of right wing propaganda even though the propaganda has been debunked in past As the saying goes “Just keep repeating the lies until people believe the lies”
Hidden behind the propaganda is that you’re not patriotic or have no allegiance to the flag unless you support and believe in the conspiracy theory whatever it may be Right wing twisted mental sociopaths work daily on deceiving the American public
Then there are the threats to people’s intelligence FCC chair Carr threatens network licensing…which by the way he can’t do…and will support Ellison’s CBS debacle along with other attempts to confuse the American people and has demanded like any fascist that the media needs to be policed Publicly a right wing lawyer steeped in this propaganda effort has said, “We need to get the libs off the air” Cheeto needs to be reported to the FCC for all his lies
Cheeto’s whole point behind the fascist attack of the media is to suppress and intimidate the media so they won’t report the truth It’s right out of the Nazi Republican authoritarian playbook called Project 2025 But WE the People will insist on news reporting that is honest and substantiated and let the weak minds be manipulated
…hahahahahaha
…rusha is a GENETIC GARBAGE, it’s not derogatory it’s what happens when throughout the whole history of the country and last century they literally exterminated all intelligent and free thinking people generation to generation and only people left who oppressed them or those who kept their mouth shut in order to survive, that country always was full of criminals, not much to lose there, we used to say if someone got locked up, they got from a “big prison” to a “small” one, major problem of putin’s country that it HAS NO HUMAN RESOURCES to build society that makes sense for the rest of the world, its all gone with all those republics, which they were milking all through the soviet years, to become their own sovereign entities, which infuriated putin, a country of people who never ever think of their future because everyone knows nothings good is coming tomorrow,
…soviet union forcefully inbred stupidity and putin finished it off
…dreadful place in and out, Ukraine on the other hand is different, but it’s three times smaller population then rusha and its loses are very unequal not by quantity, but by quality of loses with future potential to rebuild their country, any war is a horrible thing, specially for the nation that did not want it, but have to face it and spend precious resources not on making their people live better, but for the simple task to survive, FUCK putin ! …GLORY TO UKRAINE 🇺🇦 !
Gottesman identifies the right question but leaves it open: why should Americans care about Narva? The structural answer is not moral but strategic. The value of a commitment system like NATO lies entirely in its unconditional credibility. A commitment that is conditioned on the size of the territory being defended, or the number of Russian speakers in it, is not a commitment at all. Once that conditionality becomes visible, every member state recalculates its security independently. That is the end of collective security, not as a moral failure, but as a structural collapse.
Pro- tip always beware of the Prefix "If" <--- Always indicates a key manipulation at it's core.
https://min.news/en/military/5ffbbf6900fab6ef95bca0b887a59b87.html
.
^^^ This made for interesting reading... Potted History of dividing up an Entire Soviet Navy (almost) and whole bunch of stray Nukes... and other "Goodies",
.
Just a reminder that WAR is theft - and little else - meanwhile Ukraine historically has the Former Soviet Union's principal and best assets (although not culturally per se but military and space assets + massive resources all the way to serious agriculture.). Ukraine is a massive country (possibly the largest "In" Europe - I haven't looked that up.).
.
Pulling out a map of Estonia's exact location it's hard not to burst out laughing...
.
Very impressed by Estonia's strides and metrics and frankly incredible progress - but any armed conflict would be waaaaaaay more expensive than what the country is able to produce over a fifty year period (slight exaggeration).
.
I haven't read German general - Carlo Masala's 120 page treatise of "Hey Have you considered taking Estonia instead" whereas the GLORIUS NATION of Kazakhstan would (theoretically be a more logical choice) for "Where to Invade NEXT..." Russian version. At the time they had a 4th ranking number of nuclear war heads and missiles... 4th GREATEST nuclear power in the world ! One of several awkward go-between states for all things tricky and Russian. [Not just a grabbed up buffer state from yester year.] <--- The Americans didn't really help much then either.
.
It's like that Gary Larsen Cartoon where the Bear points to the other bear to shoot - behind his back - as seen through the telescopic gun sight of the hunter. (as per Masala's Thesis ). [ I didn't say Tikka Masala - Nor General Akbar's fish sticks - brother in law. ].
.
[Those board games look cool - Tales of the Loop - who would imagine or horse themed WWII board games ?].
.
.
Could be cool for someone on those rainy days ... in the high desert of New Mexi-hell that I'm trying to escape from.
yeah yeah I do in cursory fashion know all the thousand year histories of the region...
.
Those Teutonic Knights - <--- Total losers - the LEAST successful branch of the "Brotherhood"... jerks.
.
But they have cool wooden skirts that help in not getting their legs chopped off - quite so much ... and NOT all of the Trakehners (their horse's / mounts) are bat-shit crazy between the ears (too much Arabian) and have navicular complex... 'cuz the post WWII breeders had no fucking idea what they were doing...
.
Speaking of which I have to do my horse - Monty - Monty's feet ... (named for Catch The Full Monty) not that asshole Montgomery who couldn't ride a horse a horse to save his life.
.
You can tell a lot about a person by how they ride and treat their horses...
.
Fucking asswipe obsessed with Romel's horse.
.
Jerks - idiots and endless abuse.
,'After the occupation...
.
"Which one is Romel's horse ???".
.
-"Ohhhh errrr THIS ONE ... YES , he's really EASY to ride - very calm temperament for a stallion you totally won't be spending MORE time going vertically than horizontally ... NOPE... ".
.
"Ohhh you want to ride 'Widow maker" I mean Rommel's mount... SURE...".
.
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyX57Ggnl4I
.
They Murdered Rommel's White Horse ^^^ From Mark Felton Productions.
.
I have to say as FEI / Grand Prix horse trainer I was disappointed to see pictures of
.
Field Marshal Bernard (Law) Montgomery, 1st Viscount Montgomery of Alamein, <--- blah blah blah...
.
Absolutely reads as a total fucking (clueless asshole)... Reads as Erratic hubris on a horse.
.
Maybe like Carlo Masala ? Who knows why people even write such things.
.
In the 1970s / 80s and 90s it was hard to find anyone to join the modern German Wehrmacht / Bundeswehr just for massive guilt complex and distancing themselves from their actual past.
.
A lot of modern German tank spares are manufactured in so called "Slavic" states to save money.
.
The American tanks are completely inoperable in any practical fashion in a European theatre of war. Woefully impractical and expensive - primary design criteria center around "Religious Oil War" contingencies and little else with heavily supported / impregnable bases easily in reach.
.
+ Spare parts coming for the USA would be incredibly slow to the point of uselessness...
.
Actually not very likely that USA would stop an imaginary invasion of Estonia...
.
.
.
.
.
.LAter or what-evvs...