Yes Evan — and that is precisely the point many still underestimate.
If Russia “wins”, it will not look like a dramatic parade in Kyiv, but rather a slow strategic shift: a weakened Ukraine, a fractured West, and a precedent that borders in Europe can be changed by force.
The real consequence is not territorial — it is psychological and political.
A Russian success would validate coercion as a tool of statecraft, embolden revisionist powers, and test NATO’s credibility, particularly on its eastern flank. We have already seen how Moscow probes for weakness; a perceived victory would only accelerate that behaviour.
In that sense, the question is not whether Russia wins territory — but whether it wins the future rules of the European security order.
RussiaIsLosing. It’s losing territory it previously occupied and Ukraine has created a 150 km deep kill zone along Zaporitzhia front. Little chance of Russia winning given the devastation of its economy and damage to its oil fields
A Russian “win,” besides possibly emboldening Russia to invade Estonia, will also likely embolden China to invade Taiwan.
In fact, very sadly, mostly because of the insanity of the Trump regime, I actually think that it’s too late and only a matter of time before that happens.
And will be part of Trump’s godawful legacy, if humanity itself even survives the next three years.
Yes Evan — and that is precisely the point many still underestimate.
If Russia “wins”, it will not look like a dramatic parade in Kyiv, but rather a slow strategic shift: a weakened Ukraine, a fractured West, and a precedent that borders in Europe can be changed by force.
The real consequence is not territorial — it is psychological and political.
A Russian success would validate coercion as a tool of statecraft, embolden revisionist powers, and test NATO’s credibility, particularly on its eastern flank. We have already seen how Moscow probes for weakness; a perceived victory would only accelerate that behaviour.
In that sense, the question is not whether Russia wins territory — but whether it wins the future rules of the European security order.
And that is a much bigger stakes game.
RussiaIsLosing. It’s losing territory it previously occupied and Ukraine has created a 150 km deep kill zone along Zaporitzhia front. Little chance of Russia winning given the devastation of its economy and damage to its oil fields
And yet things could change. It's been a very long war, with a lot of swings.
I'm happy the current paradigm favors Ukraine.
This one is for the Americans wondering why we should care about Ukraine…
Evan,
A Russian “win,” besides possibly emboldening Russia to invade Estonia, will also likely embolden China to invade Taiwan.
In fact, very sadly, mostly because of the insanity of the Trump regime, I actually think that it’s too late and only a matter of time before that happens.
And will be part of Trump’s godawful legacy, if humanity itself even survives the next three years.