I don’t think Canada has the luxury of ignoring China as an export market given the size of its resource economy , especially since Trump claims US has no need of it. This does not mean that Canada embraces China as a real partner, the way US used to be viewed. Carney stated that there are clear guardrails on the relationship with respect to security and sharing of information.
Exactly, buying cars and selling grain isn’t giving away the store. It’s strategic and practical. If the US returns to some kind of normal, things could shift. Carney is a smart guy.
I agree. Carney’s outreach to China is like a wake up call to an unfeeling romantic partner, letting him or her know that you’re not available to see them for awhile. His reference to Thucydides’s distinction about the treatment of strong and weak peoples hints at parallels to the hubris of democratic Athens subordinating its allies and neutrals like the Melians - an exercise in pride that preceded a fall in the Athenian alliance.
Carney belongs to the Liberal Party, who have long been close to China. We even had a scandal of secret “police stations” run by China that were used to harass Chinese Canadians who criticized the CCP.
Still we’ve really been hurt by Trump on trade. Carney can’t let unemployment go through the roof if trade deals are possible elsewhere.
The way that I think of our relationship with China is different than many seem to understand. The goals of the last mission were strictly economic. Remove some tariffs, get to know the players, reestablish lines of communication. Based on his speech, Carney was not just talking about the US, but also China and Russia. If he believes what he says, there is no alliance on the offing, but we have acknowledged that China is a hegemon and deserves some respect. We will probe for areas where we both can cooperate, but be mindful of pitfalls, traps, and escape routes. We will engage on select topics where we have differences, but must maintain the stoic view that we cannot change them, only ourselves. We will continue to ally ourselves with like minded nations, but know that China, Russia, and the US will continue to deal with nations that don't share our values. We will change our view of ourselves in the world to specifically improve our defense, diplomacy, and economy to become more independent, but not be lonely. We want friends and competitors, and will be prepared for adversaries with those same or different teammates. I don't want to sound too optimistic, but I think we can do what he says and maybe more quickly than even we can think of.
Garry misreads if he thinks Carney says “choose China over USA.” Carney says to the middle powers, “Choose each other. Stop putting all your eggs in hegemon baskets.” Canada can lead this. Canada has been a free-world saving ally in two world wars. When the UK stood alone September 1939 to January 1942, a big Canadian troop deployment in the UK was an added deterrent to Nazi invasion. Canadian ports and Canadian warship escorts were key to the success of convoys that sustained the UK and Soviet defences. Canadian industry and Canadian skies trained thousands of pilots from around the world who then deployed to destroy the Luftwaffe. The Atlantic Charter, the war aims document that FDR got Churchill to sign, the agreement that for the last 85 years kept the great powers from another world war, was signed in Newfoundland in August 1941. Churchill and FDR left for home. FDR’s son Elliott (USAF aerial reconnaissance captain) flew from Newfoundland to continue the aerial mapping of Greenland, which leads us to the continued NATO and NORAD cooperative defence of the North Atlantic to this day. Canada has always been the linchpin in these great alliances. If the USA wants to give all that up, so be it. Canada can be a linchpin of allies who want to adhere to the principles of the Atlantic Charter - no matter which hemisphere or ocean.
China is not threatening Canadian sovereignty and take over: America has been messing with Canadian politics and trying to direct the sovereignty issue for many decades - ramped most recently with the usual suspects weighing in.
Conservative PM Harper allowed right wing American hedge fund owned Post Media to buy dozens of media outlets who harangue Canadians all day with their nihilistic American right wing political garbage. Harper also happens to be the guy that decimated Canada’s military!
Easy to criticize - what’s the solution then?
Now we have a fascist Board of Peace set up to protect scum around the world - autocrats, dictators and criminals united under an American organization headed by the American President! What’s he selling and offering - $1 billion and you can do whatever you want and American justice will be blind? His own loyalty pledges a fake nato where they come to others side?
Both China and the US have engaged in foreign interference. China has UFWD groups throughout Canada and the Hogue Commission heard testimony and the report is publicly available. That’s undisputed that China has meddled. However America also has, that’s their foreign policy to meddle in the affairs of middle and lower powers to preserve their hegemony.
Of course China meddles - so does India thru the IDU that conservatives line up behind, and many suggest Poilievre’s association with that group is the reason he refuses to even try to get a security clearance. The US are the only ones making open moves to ‘annex’ or cripple Canada!
There it is — the nonsense conspiratorial narrative about security clearance. 😆
If you seek to downplay the nefarious nature of the PRC’s interference it’s because you’re ill informed.
Please do inform yourself. Go read some Sam Cooper, or maybe check out Glavin’s archives about the PRC. Did you not pay attention to the Hogue Commission or read the reports? Did you forget the commotion around Paul Chiang? There is capture it is very real, as is transnational repression is very real and very crippling to Canada.
We are a middle power caught between predatory titans. That’s the world in which we live and we have to be geopolitically street smart in navigating the treachery.
You think Donald Trump is meddling in Canadian affairs? The reality is like in Mad Men. Trump doesn’t think about Canada much at all. He’s a clown playing for laughs from his domestic audience.
Trump does not want the U.S. to be a 'great power' neighboured by middle powers with their own foreign policies - and ironically till recently neither Canada nor Mexico showed much interest in independent foreign policies. Now Mexico is pursuing 'Mesoamerican' economic integration with Belize and Guatemala as a regional hegemon in central America, whilst Canada, wedged between the U.S. and Russia, has no similar recourse but can take the approach of Qatar, Israel, Singapore, etc. via internationalisation whilst remaining dependent on the U.S. It's unclear as to whether DC, unused to seeing its neighbouring capitals this proactive, will accept this under the Trump II administration.
He wants to make deals with the other 'great powers' from a position of strength. He feels smaller in negotiations with China and Russia because of their territorial size and regional economic heft which subordinates their neighbours - hence his interest Greenland, Canada and Mexico. Even just a quarter of Greenland would add enough territory to the U.S. to eclipse that of China; the economic subordination of Canada, achieved by reducing long-term U.S. dependence on Canadian crude oil and electricity (e.g. Venezuelan imports), would mirror that if Russia and China with its neighbouring countries. Any apparent advantage he perceived in either country is a weakness he perceived in the U.S.
The deal with China does bother me. But on the other hand, Canada is not refusing to have trade agreements with the USA, has never refused to have trade agreements with anyone, really. The key thing here is to unite the free world against the superpowers, to create and maintain a significant alignment without the USA.
Canada and Europe have depended for too long on America. It's unfortunate that the collapse of the USA into authoritarianism and flat-out insanity means that the entire world is arming up. We are inching closer and closer to a more dangerous place, moving towards WWIII and thus closer to nuclear war.
But I see China as the least problematic of the superpowers, the sanest. Trump is nuts. Putin is rational but egomaniacal. Both of them are imperialists. Xi is at least stable despite being cold blooded and devious. It's a tough situation. Not without concerns and actual fear, I think Carney is doing the right thing.
Carney is a politician with vision. A rarity in today's world. The current American administration is tirelessly poisoning every well. This work will leave lasting damage for years. We need a strategy to address this "rupture," and it cannot be by collaborating with "healthy" Americans. They already have too much to do at home. We must forge new alliances and look elsewhere.
Hi Gary. Long time listener first time caller:) 🇨🇦 here and one of the first people in the world to sound the alarm on Trumps intention to annex Canada (Dec 2024).
That's correct, Trump threatened to annex Canada before Greenland. (Nov 26th 2024 it began). And his efforts to do so began just as early.
You have to understand the context. Through a series of diplomatic, military, and economic integration (trumps own cusma being only the last one), Canadian society was nearly wholly integrated with American society - and isolated from China entirely as a result. Canada 80%plus trade with USA. %1ish with China.
Trumps tarrifs on Canada were in violation of a trade agreement and alliance network that was what ***he*** described (Jan 6, 2025) as an attempt to use economic force to absorb Canada. In addition, during that time, trump has met with and coordinated with a seperatist movement ***inside*** of Canada to break up the federation of Canada. (Rath, premeir smith, etc). A referendum is now on the books in Alberta. Mysterious American advocates for seperation are reported to be knocking on doors here.
Canada backs Greenland. But in spite of the outroar in defense of Greenland, the threat to Canadian sovereignty is in my view far far more severe.
In regard to Mr. Kasparov's comments about Canada having a minor role in world affairs, I would encourage readers to consider the lives of at least two notable Canadians. Dr. Norman Bethune was a pioneering thoracic surgeon and early advocate for universal health care in Canada. He served as a stretcher-bearer in the battle for Ypres in the First World War, was a front-line doctor in the Mackenzie-Papineau Battalion during the Spanish Civil war and, later, in China's Eighth Army in the Sino-Japanese War. Dr. Bethune died at the age of 49 in Heibei province, northern China. He is recognized as a national hero in China and was (belatedly) inducted into the Canadian Medical Hall of Fame in 1998. Lester Pearson (1897-1972) was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1957 for his role, as Canadian foreign minister in Louis St. Laurent's Liberal government, in forming the United Nations Emergency Force, which was stationed in a neutral buffer zone between the Egyptian and Israeli armies during the Suez Crisis in 1956. This was the first-ever UN peacekeeping force. It facilitated the withdrawal of foreign troops and stabilized the region until it withdrew, at the request of the Egyptian government, in 1967. Pearson went on to become Canada's 14th Prime Minister. Other Canadians who have been recognized for their roles in promoting world peace include: Romeo Dallaire (Commander of the UN peacekeeping mission during the Rwandan genocide); James Orbinski (founder of Medecins sans Frontiers and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize for MSF in 1999); and Lloyd Axworthy (Minister of Foreign Affairs under Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien, and leading force behind the land International Agreement to Ban Anti-Personnel Land-Mine ratified by the UN in 1996). Many, many other Canadians have contributed to the cause of world peace and could be added to this list. Despite its status as so-called "middle power" Canada has had an outsized and often underappreciated role in promoting peaceful international relations.
This view Kasparov place is the less important. Carney’s was about world order. Yes China is a dictatorship. But is more than dictatorship, is about economic supremacy and control. China is not an ally, but a risk weight. Why put all the eggs on the USA when there are other partners in the world that are more reliable. Is not about democracy. Is about the middle nations, Canada , France, the uk, Germany, Japan need to spread the risk and make sense of a new world order. Luke carney said very clear. The old world order of the last 80 y is over. Russia war against Ukraine and an unpredictable us gov have made it clear. Is not simple but is clear.
Canada doesn't mix values with economy. Save that for Trump. Trade with China had been successful for decades. Let's be clear about China. Carney was clear. Be at the table or be the menu. We will trade with all who reliably trade back. That is not the same as sharing World views and it's not the same as having security ties. We read the news. We even travel to China. But respect for economic value is not subordination. As long as America wishes to devalue and subordinate Canada we will look for business elsewhere. I'm pretty sure that was the point of Carney's 'predator ' speech.
Carney’s speech is one for the ages. And I don’t think they plan to truly partner with China. They will strengthen trade ties but that’s all. It’s Europe that Canada will truly partner with, as it should.
In addition, while I am not comfortable with the Chinese dictatorship (we have had citizens detained as a result of standing up to China over the last decade - more than the United States)
It is american propaganda to suggest Canada is “chosing China.” That's silly.
We have agreed to import some electric vehicles. Maybe allow our anerican-displaced auto industry a chance to partner in building some. A very small fraction of them.
There really is not much more than that. At this time. So far.
US trade with China is 11%ish. Canada is 1%ish. Canada is restoring a slightly more well rounded trade exchange with China to inch that %1 slightly higher.
Canada's overall strategy :
“Have many masters and you have none”
Canada is pursuing the unenviable task of redistributing, slowly, that %80 of USA trade with other countries. ***Some*** of that includes China.
I don't like it. I don't look like China. But it is what must be done.
I want to say that as a chess player I have been a Kasparov fan for as long as I remember. Experts are vulnerable when they step out and can easily embarrass themselves. So I am glad to see how Kasparov successfully applies to politics the strategic thinking that made him the arguably greatest player ever to the world of politics.
I completely agree with the proposal (which, for some reason, I have not come across yet, maybe that is my limited reading) that democracies need to unite against authoritarian and authoritarian-leaning regimes.
Let me add one idea to this. Democracies need to make sure that they can produce the technology that they need to survive. Democracies need technological and strategic autonomy.
For example, democracies need to be able to manufacture their own chips. Why leave it to Nvidia?
As the Airbus example shows, government-led initiatives can create companies that compete successfully in the market (afaik Airbus, founded in 1969, has a larger market share than Boeing since 2019). Much of the technology of manufacturing chips is already in Europe (Zeiss, ASML). Why leave the top layer that collects most of the profits and has most of the market power in the hands of a government that threatens democracies?
Similarly, democracies need sovereign social media. Their own satellites. Etc. European countries have a long and strong track record in creating public goods (including opens source software). I think Europe needs to strengthen that tradition to our digital infrastructure.
Democracies still have the economic power to do it and the brain power. But they need to get more serious about this urgently.
I think the operative word was “strategic”. Canada has to show that Trump’s tariffs will not cripple our economy. We have options to replace the American market- although transition will be painful. PM Carney spoke in his post-speech Q&A about linking the trade networks Canada has in the Pacific, Europe and South America to create greater opportunities for all. The geographic imperative of trade between Canada and the US is powerful- but until recently the motivation to resist it has not been stronger than the benefits of exploiting it. But Canada was in both World Wars YEARS before the US and we did not go to Vietnam although we fought bravely in Afganistan as a result of the 9/11 attack on our neighbour and ally. All to say, we have been capable of forging our own path in opposition to the US. Economically it will be harder, but the spontaneous Canadian response to Trump’s threats (boycotts etc) show we haven’t lost the capacity to make our own way. Your warnings about China are well founded but I think you err if you think Carney’s remarks ignored them.
What I most appreciated about Havel's quote was this: Every morning, this shopkeeper places a sign in his window: “Workers of the world unite.” He doesn’t believe it, no-one does, but he places a sign anyway to avoid trouble, to signal compliance, to get along. And because every shopkeeper on every street does the same, the system persists—not through violence alone, but through the participation of ordinary people in rituals they privately know to be false.
Seems like the chess analogy is appropriate. Should we act as if there were no threat to the our pieces for fear of our opponent's reaction? No matter how much we try to act "as if" we will lose.
The concluding paragraphs of Andrew Coyne on this issue:
“Okay, then: how exposed are we after this agreement? Exports to China currently amount to $30-billion annually, or less than 4 per cent of all Canadian exports. A government background paper sets an “ambitious new goal” of increasing exports to China by 50 per cent by 2030. But exports would be expected to rise anyway, in line with growth in the Chinese economy: by about 25 to 35 per cent, on current trends. And Canada has similar ambitions of expanding trade with other, non-U.S. countries.
So the total impact, in trade terms, of this great pivot/tilt/reset might be to increase China’s share of Canadian exports over five years from a little under 4 per cent to maybe 5 per cent. That’s not nothing. It’s symbolically important. It shows we have options. As part of a larger project of diversifying our trade, it’s probably worth doing.
But a sellout of Canadian interests? A surrender to dictatorship? Even a return to the status quo, pre-2018? Come on.”
I don’t think Canada has the luxury of ignoring China as an export market given the size of its resource economy , especially since Trump claims US has no need of it. This does not mean that Canada embraces China as a real partner, the way US used to be viewed. Carney stated that there are clear guardrails on the relationship with respect to security and sharing of information.
Exactly, buying cars and selling grain isn’t giving away the store. It’s strategic and practical. If the US returns to some kind of normal, things could shift. Carney is a smart guy.
LOL. Buying cars and selling canola isn’t very strategic. Talking tough at Davos after groveling in Beijing shows he doesn’t have much vision.
I agree. Carney’s outreach to China is like a wake up call to an unfeeling romantic partner, letting him or her know that you’re not available to see them for awhile. His reference to Thucydides’s distinction about the treatment of strong and weak peoples hints at parallels to the hubris of democratic Athens subordinating its allies and neutrals like the Melians - an exercise in pride that preceded a fall in the Athenian alliance.
Carney belongs to the Liberal Party, who have long been close to China. We even had a scandal of secret “police stations” run by China that were used to harass Chinese Canadians who criticized the CCP.
Still we’ve really been hurt by Trump on trade. Carney can’t let unemployment go through the roof if trade deals are possible elsewhere.
Yep, Trump's Great Leap Inward is making the rest of the democratic world more economically reliant on China as a necessary evil.
The way that I think of our relationship with China is different than many seem to understand. The goals of the last mission were strictly economic. Remove some tariffs, get to know the players, reestablish lines of communication. Based on his speech, Carney was not just talking about the US, but also China and Russia. If he believes what he says, there is no alliance on the offing, but we have acknowledged that China is a hegemon and deserves some respect. We will probe for areas where we both can cooperate, but be mindful of pitfalls, traps, and escape routes. We will engage on select topics where we have differences, but must maintain the stoic view that we cannot change them, only ourselves. We will continue to ally ourselves with like minded nations, but know that China, Russia, and the US will continue to deal with nations that don't share our values. We will change our view of ourselves in the world to specifically improve our defense, diplomacy, and economy to become more independent, but not be lonely. We want friends and competitors, and will be prepared for adversaries with those same or different teammates. I don't want to sound too optimistic, but I think we can do what he says and maybe more quickly than even we can think of.
Well said,Kary Andrea and Tom.
Garry misreads if he thinks Carney says “choose China over USA.” Carney says to the middle powers, “Choose each other. Stop putting all your eggs in hegemon baskets.” Canada can lead this. Canada has been a free-world saving ally in two world wars. When the UK stood alone September 1939 to January 1942, a big Canadian troop deployment in the UK was an added deterrent to Nazi invasion. Canadian ports and Canadian warship escorts were key to the success of convoys that sustained the UK and Soviet defences. Canadian industry and Canadian skies trained thousands of pilots from around the world who then deployed to destroy the Luftwaffe. The Atlantic Charter, the war aims document that FDR got Churchill to sign, the agreement that for the last 85 years kept the great powers from another world war, was signed in Newfoundland in August 1941. Churchill and FDR left for home. FDR’s son Elliott (USAF aerial reconnaissance captain) flew from Newfoundland to continue the aerial mapping of Greenland, which leads us to the continued NATO and NORAD cooperative defence of the North Atlantic to this day. Canada has always been the linchpin in these great alliances. If the USA wants to give all that up, so be it. Canada can be a linchpin of allies who want to adhere to the principles of the Atlantic Charter - no matter which hemisphere or ocean.
China is not threatening Canadian sovereignty and take over: America has been messing with Canadian politics and trying to direct the sovereignty issue for many decades - ramped most recently with the usual suspects weighing in.
Conservative PM Harper allowed right wing American hedge fund owned Post Media to buy dozens of media outlets who harangue Canadians all day with their nihilistic American right wing political garbage. Harper also happens to be the guy that decimated Canada’s military!
Easy to criticize - what’s the solution then?
Now we have a fascist Board of Peace set up to protect scum around the world - autocrats, dictators and criminals united under an American organization headed by the American President! What’s he selling and offering - $1 billion and you can do whatever you want and American justice will be blind? His own loyalty pledges a fake nato where they come to others side?
Both China and the US have engaged in foreign interference. China has UFWD groups throughout Canada and the Hogue Commission heard testimony and the report is publicly available. That’s undisputed that China has meddled. However America also has, that’s their foreign policy to meddle in the affairs of middle and lower powers to preserve their hegemony.
Of course China meddles - so does India thru the IDU that conservatives line up behind, and many suggest Poilievre’s association with that group is the reason he refuses to even try to get a security clearance. The US are the only ones making open moves to ‘annex’ or cripple Canada!
There it is — the nonsense conspiratorial narrative about security clearance. 😆
If you seek to downplay the nefarious nature of the PRC’s interference it’s because you’re ill informed.
Please do inform yourself. Go read some Sam Cooper, or maybe check out Glavin’s archives about the PRC. Did you not pay attention to the Hogue Commission or read the reports? Did you forget the commotion around Paul Chiang? There is capture it is very real, as is transnational repression is very real and very crippling to Canada.
We are a middle power caught between predatory titans. That’s the world in which we live and we have to be geopolitically street smart in navigating the treachery.
You think Donald Trump is meddling in Canadian affairs? The reality is like in Mad Men. Trump doesn’t think about Canada much at all. He’s a clown playing for laughs from his domestic audience.
Trump does not want the U.S. to be a 'great power' neighboured by middle powers with their own foreign policies - and ironically till recently neither Canada nor Mexico showed much interest in independent foreign policies. Now Mexico is pursuing 'Mesoamerican' economic integration with Belize and Guatemala as a regional hegemon in central America, whilst Canada, wedged between the U.S. and Russia, has no similar recourse but can take the approach of Qatar, Israel, Singapore, etc. via internationalisation whilst remaining dependent on the U.S. It's unclear as to whether DC, unused to seeing its neighbouring capitals this proactive, will accept this under the Trump II administration.
He wants to make deals with the other 'great powers' from a position of strength. He feels smaller in negotiations with China and Russia because of their territorial size and regional economic heft which subordinates their neighbours - hence his interest Greenland, Canada and Mexico. Even just a quarter of Greenland would add enough territory to the U.S. to eclipse that of China; the economic subordination of Canada, achieved by reducing long-term U.S. dependence on Canadian crude oil and electricity (e.g. Venezuelan imports), would mirror that if Russia and China with its neighbouring countries. Any apparent advantage he perceived in either country is a weakness he perceived in the U.S.
The deal with China does bother me. But on the other hand, Canada is not refusing to have trade agreements with the USA, has never refused to have trade agreements with anyone, really. The key thing here is to unite the free world against the superpowers, to create and maintain a significant alignment without the USA.
Canada and Europe have depended for too long on America. It's unfortunate that the collapse of the USA into authoritarianism and flat-out insanity means that the entire world is arming up. We are inching closer and closer to a more dangerous place, moving towards WWIII and thus closer to nuclear war.
But I see China as the least problematic of the superpowers, the sanest. Trump is nuts. Putin is rational but egomaniacal. Both of them are imperialists. Xi is at least stable despite being cold blooded and devious. It's a tough situation. Not without concerns and actual fear, I think Carney is doing the right thing.
Carney is a politician with vision. A rarity in today's world. The current American administration is tirelessly poisoning every well. This work will leave lasting damage for years. We need a strategy to address this "rupture," and it cannot be by collaborating with "healthy" Americans. They already have too much to do at home. We must forge new alliances and look elsewhere.
Hi Gary. Long time listener first time caller:) 🇨🇦 here and one of the first people in the world to sound the alarm on Trumps intention to annex Canada (Dec 2024).
That's correct, Trump threatened to annex Canada before Greenland. (Nov 26th 2024 it began). And his efforts to do so began just as early.
You have to understand the context. Through a series of diplomatic, military, and economic integration (trumps own cusma being only the last one), Canadian society was nearly wholly integrated with American society - and isolated from China entirely as a result. Canada 80%plus trade with USA. %1ish with China.
Trumps tarrifs on Canada were in violation of a trade agreement and alliance network that was what ***he*** described (Jan 6, 2025) as an attempt to use economic force to absorb Canada. In addition, during that time, trump has met with and coordinated with a seperatist movement ***inside*** of Canada to break up the federation of Canada. (Rath, premeir smith, etc). A referendum is now on the books in Alberta. Mysterious American advocates for seperation are reported to be knocking on doors here.
Canada backs Greenland. But in spite of the outroar in defense of Greenland, the threat to Canadian sovereignty is in my view far far more severe.
One of my first warnings:
https://x.com/dm4444/status/1869449782193959252?s=46k
In regard to Mr. Kasparov's comments about Canada having a minor role in world affairs, I would encourage readers to consider the lives of at least two notable Canadians. Dr. Norman Bethune was a pioneering thoracic surgeon and early advocate for universal health care in Canada. He served as a stretcher-bearer in the battle for Ypres in the First World War, was a front-line doctor in the Mackenzie-Papineau Battalion during the Spanish Civil war and, later, in China's Eighth Army in the Sino-Japanese War. Dr. Bethune died at the age of 49 in Heibei province, northern China. He is recognized as a national hero in China and was (belatedly) inducted into the Canadian Medical Hall of Fame in 1998. Lester Pearson (1897-1972) was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1957 for his role, as Canadian foreign minister in Louis St. Laurent's Liberal government, in forming the United Nations Emergency Force, which was stationed in a neutral buffer zone between the Egyptian and Israeli armies during the Suez Crisis in 1956. This was the first-ever UN peacekeeping force. It facilitated the withdrawal of foreign troops and stabilized the region until it withdrew, at the request of the Egyptian government, in 1967. Pearson went on to become Canada's 14th Prime Minister. Other Canadians who have been recognized for their roles in promoting world peace include: Romeo Dallaire (Commander of the UN peacekeeping mission during the Rwandan genocide); James Orbinski (founder of Medecins sans Frontiers and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize for MSF in 1999); and Lloyd Axworthy (Minister of Foreign Affairs under Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien, and leading force behind the land International Agreement to Ban Anti-Personnel Land-Mine ratified by the UN in 1996). Many, many other Canadians have contributed to the cause of world peace and could be added to this list. Despite its status as so-called "middle power" Canada has had an outsized and often underappreciated role in promoting peaceful international relations.
This view Kasparov place is the less important. Carney’s was about world order. Yes China is a dictatorship. But is more than dictatorship, is about economic supremacy and control. China is not an ally, but a risk weight. Why put all the eggs on the USA when there are other partners in the world that are more reliable. Is not about democracy. Is about the middle nations, Canada , France, the uk, Germany, Japan need to spread the risk and make sense of a new world order. Luke carney said very clear. The old world order of the last 80 y is over. Russia war against Ukraine and an unpredictable us gov have made it clear. Is not simple but is clear.
Canada doesn't mix values with economy. Save that for Trump. Trade with China had been successful for decades. Let's be clear about China. Carney was clear. Be at the table or be the menu. We will trade with all who reliably trade back. That is not the same as sharing World views and it's not the same as having security ties. We read the news. We even travel to China. But respect for economic value is not subordination. As long as America wishes to devalue and subordinate Canada we will look for business elsewhere. I'm pretty sure that was the point of Carney's 'predator ' speech.
Carney’s speech is one for the ages. And I don’t think they plan to truly partner with China. They will strengthen trade ties but that’s all. It’s Europe that Canada will truly partner with, as it should.
And Asian democracies like Japan and South Korea, and some fellow Commonwealth countries like Australia. Canada is also a Pacific country.
Absolutely.
In addition, while I am not comfortable with the Chinese dictatorship (we have had citizens detained as a result of standing up to China over the last decade - more than the United States)
It is american propaganda to suggest Canada is “chosing China.” That's silly.
We have agreed to import some electric vehicles. Maybe allow our anerican-displaced auto industry a chance to partner in building some. A very small fraction of them.
There really is not much more than that. At this time. So far.
US trade with China is 11%ish. Canada is 1%ish. Canada is restoring a slightly more well rounded trade exchange with China to inch that %1 slightly higher.
Canada's overall strategy :
“Have many masters and you have none”
Canada is pursuing the unenviable task of redistributing, slowly, that %80 of USA trade with other countries. ***Some*** of that includes China.
I don't like it. I don't look like China. But it is what must be done.
I want to say that as a chess player I have been a Kasparov fan for as long as I remember. Experts are vulnerable when they step out and can easily embarrass themselves. So I am glad to see how Kasparov successfully applies to politics the strategic thinking that made him the arguably greatest player ever to the world of politics.
I completely agree with the proposal (which, for some reason, I have not come across yet, maybe that is my limited reading) that democracies need to unite against authoritarian and authoritarian-leaning regimes.
Let me add one idea to this. Democracies need to make sure that they can produce the technology that they need to survive. Democracies need technological and strategic autonomy.
For example, democracies need to be able to manufacture their own chips. Why leave it to Nvidia?
As the Airbus example shows, government-led initiatives can create companies that compete successfully in the market (afaik Airbus, founded in 1969, has a larger market share than Boeing since 2019). Much of the technology of manufacturing chips is already in Europe (Zeiss, ASML). Why leave the top layer that collects most of the profits and has most of the market power in the hands of a government that threatens democracies?
Similarly, democracies need sovereign social media. Their own satellites. Etc. European countries have a long and strong track record in creating public goods (including opens source software). I think Europe needs to strengthen that tradition to our digital infrastructure.
Democracies still have the economic power to do it and the brain power. But they need to get more serious about this urgently.
I think the operative word was “strategic”. Canada has to show that Trump’s tariffs will not cripple our economy. We have options to replace the American market- although transition will be painful. PM Carney spoke in his post-speech Q&A about linking the trade networks Canada has in the Pacific, Europe and South America to create greater opportunities for all. The geographic imperative of trade between Canada and the US is powerful- but until recently the motivation to resist it has not been stronger than the benefits of exploiting it. But Canada was in both World Wars YEARS before the US and we did not go to Vietnam although we fought bravely in Afganistan as a result of the 9/11 attack on our neighbour and ally. All to say, we have been capable of forging our own path in opposition to the US. Economically it will be harder, but the spontaneous Canadian response to Trump’s threats (boycotts etc) show we haven’t lost the capacity to make our own way. Your warnings about China are well founded but I think you err if you think Carney’s remarks ignored them.
What I most appreciated about Havel's quote was this: Every morning, this shopkeeper places a sign in his window: “Workers of the world unite.” He doesn’t believe it, no-one does, but he places a sign anyway to avoid trouble, to signal compliance, to get along. And because every shopkeeper on every street does the same, the system persists—not through violence alone, but through the participation of ordinary people in rituals they privately know to be false.
Seems like the chess analogy is appropriate. Should we act as if there were no threat to the our pieces for fear of our opponent's reaction? No matter how much we try to act "as if" we will lose.
The concluding paragraphs of Andrew Coyne on this issue:
“Okay, then: how exposed are we after this agreement? Exports to China currently amount to $30-billion annually, or less than 4 per cent of all Canadian exports. A government background paper sets an “ambitious new goal” of increasing exports to China by 50 per cent by 2030. But exports would be expected to rise anyway, in line with growth in the Chinese economy: by about 25 to 35 per cent, on current trends. And Canada has similar ambitions of expanding trade with other, non-U.S. countries.
So the total impact, in trade terms, of this great pivot/tilt/reset might be to increase China’s share of Canadian exports over five years from a little under 4 per cent to maybe 5 per cent. That’s not nothing. It’s symbolically important. It shows we have options. As part of a larger project of diversifying our trade, it’s probably worth doing.
But a sellout of Canadian interests? A surrender to dictatorship? Even a return to the status quo, pre-2018? Come on.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-china-trade-beijing-carney-xi-jinping-ev-auto-canola-trump/