General Ben Hodges: From Minerals to Missiles

How Europe can help secure a lasting peace deal.

One area where I’m actually fairly aligned with the Trump administration—at least in theory—is on the question of European defense: European nations must do more to beat back Russian aggression on the continent. Ideally, this enhanced European role would be adopted in coordination with the United States.

Unfortunately, the Trump administration’s foreign policy—which ranges from erratic and unpredictable to predictably pro-Russian (with the president recently calling Russia’s farcical “Victory Day ceasefire” “a lot”)—has made this a more urgent necessity. We have to envision next steps around the leaders we have, not the leaders we wish we had.

This also means European governments will have to play a central part in securing the peace in Ukraine. The Trump administration insists upon going for a deal between Kyiv and Moscow. Ukraine’s European partners will be the first line of defense in ensuring that Putin does not exploit such an arrangement to launch a third, even more destructive phase in the war.

My friend Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who led the US Army in Europe, has an inside knowledge of European defense and a general’s strategic acumen. In this article, he charts a way forward for Europe and Ukraine in the second Trump term.

As always, I want to hear your thoughts. What do you make of General Hodges’s take? Where do you see the US, Europe, and Ukraine heading in the days and weeks ahead?

— Garry Kasparov

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By Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges (ret.)

President Trump has repeatedly promised a swift end to the war in Ukraine—claiming he could do it on “Day One.” But three and a half months into his administration, the path to peace remains complex and unresolved. The signing of a minerals deal between Ukraine and the United States last week does not fundamentally alter the picture.

To truly end the conflict, a phased approach is required. First, both sides must define the terms for a ceasefire and prepare for negotiations. Second, a credible force must be deployed to enforce any ceasefire—one with a clear mission and real deterrent power. And third, the parties must engage in meaningful long-term peace talks.

For this process to succeed, Europe has a crucial role to build a sustainable and just peace.

Getting to a Peace Deal

We are currently in the preliminary phase, focused on defining the terms for a ceasefire and future negotiations. Meetings in Riyadh, Washington, Brussels, Kyiv, and other capitals are underway. Ukraine accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposal, but Russia rejected it, adding unacceptable demands.

Putin—being Putin—remains committed to destroying Ukraine’s sovereignty. His obstruction will persist as long as he believes Russia is winning—and until the Trump administration applies meaningful pressure.

The second phase—a ceasefire—is likely still weeks or months away. Few believe Russia will honor an agreement without a strong force on the other side to ensure compliance. Before determining its size, the mission of such a force must be clearly defined. It should have a clear mission, unity of command, and robust rules of engagement. Additionally, it needs to be well-equipped across air, land, and sea, and capable of operating in advanced electronic warfare environments, where the Russians and the Ukrainians are the best in the World.

While Trump has ruled out US boots on the ground, American support—airpower, intelligence, logistics—may still be essential. It is certainly in the interest of the United States that this whole process be successful. It is also, candidly, in the personal interest of President Trump who has seemingly staked his supposed “deal-maker” reputation on the successful resolution of this War.

Europe, however, must lead in building the force. Europe can carry the burden, build the necessary force, and then request targeted American support—likely airpower, intelligence, logistics, and missile defense.

A third phase will involve peace talks. These talks will focus on long-term security and economic arrangements, including reconstruction aid for Ukraine, the return of kidnapped children, and accountability for war crimes. Given the complexity, the process will take months.

Success will require a unified European position—especially since the Trump administration’s envoy Steve Witkoff appears more ready to echo Kremlin talking points than Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Burden-Sharing for the Win

For this process to succeed, European nations must take concrete, coordinated steps to demonstrate leadership—not only in shaping the outcome of the war in Ukraine but also in contributing more broadly towards burden-sharing within the Alliance.

First, each NATO member should begin by committing to be a leading contributor and active participant in any force established to implement and enforce a ceasefire. Such a force will not only deter Russian violations but also serve as a litmus test for NATO’s resolve. European countries must ensure that they are not passive observers in this process but rather front-line contributors to shaping and maintaining stability on the continent.

Second, member states must urgently restore the readiness of their national armed forces. Over the past two decades, many European militaries have downsized or shifted focus away from high-intensity warfare. That era is over. Forces must once again be fully trained, equipped, and prepared to conduct the full range of deterrence and defense operations. This includes maintaining deployable units at proper readiness levels and ensuring logistics, sustainment, and command structures are up to modern standards.

Third, Europe must dramatically increase ammunition production—not only to meet Ukraine’s immediate needs but to replenish its own diminished stockpiles. This may require difficult trade-offs, including halting or reprioritizing existing contracts with customers in Africa and the Middle East. The European Defence Agency reported that nearly 50 percent of European-produced ammunition is currently sold outside the continent. That must change. Europe’s own security, and Ukraine’s survival, must come first.

Fourth, legal and structural barriers to defense production must be reformed. In some countries, manufacturers can’t produce without a government order—hindering growth and investment. These laws should be changed, and sovereign wealth funds incentivized to invest in defense to strengthen industrial capacity.

Finally, NATO must improve military mobility. The ability to rapidly deploy and reposition heavy forces across Europe is currently inadequate for a major crisis response. Bottlenecks in infrastructure, regulations, and coordination make it difficult to move troops and equipment swiftly across borders. Upgrading rail networks, streamlining customs and transit procedures, and investing in dual-use infrastructure are all essential to ensuring NATO can respond effectively in a real-world contingency.

Summoning the Political Will

We can expect plenty of zigzags and reversals in the months ahead—such is the nature of Trump-era diplomacy.

But even within the chaos, there is room for creative and potentially constructive outcomes—if Europe can summon the political will to act decisively and leverage its immense economic and diplomatic strength.

Ukraine is a sovereign nation and will chart its own course. Notably, the minerals deal did not include a US security guarantee for Ukraine. Kyiv will not, and should not, accept any settlement that compromises its independence or long-term security. If left with no choice, it will continue to fight.

Europe must step up—not just to support Ukraine, but to counterbalance a Trump administration that seems disturbingly aligned with Moscow. If Putin is allowed to win, the costs for Europe will be severe, lasting, and deeply destabilizing.

The stakes could not be clearer.

The question is: will Europe rise to meet them—or shrink in the shadow of its own hesitation?

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Lieutenant General (ret.) Ben Hodges is the former Commanding General of US Army Europe (2014-2017). He currently serves as NATO Senior Mentor for Logistics and board member for the Renew Democracy Initiative.

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